Every week in the NFL season, there’s an angle or matchup bettors can exploit with the spread, total or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown scorers market for NFL Week 8 on Sunday, November 1.
Each week, I go through every game on the slate to try and identify the players you should be considering in the ATD market and if the betting odds are worth the investment.
In 2025, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4% win rate) with +44.1 units in profit for a 11% ROI. Although there was some regression in 2026, we still had decent results at 101-265 (27.5% win rate) with +36.4 units in profit for 9.9% ROI.
If you plan to tail all these bets, please use proper bankroll management. In each of the last two seasons, I was profitable in 13 of 18 weeks (26 of 36 overall) but there’s still an average of five weeks of the season where it wasn’t great.
For players listed in “VERDICT,” those are one-unit bets for each pick. But if a player is listed in “VERDICT” as a “sprinkle," then it is a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long-shot odds.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday of Week 8.
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NFL Week 8 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
| Picks |
|---|
| Vikings vs Lions |
| Ravens vs Bills |
| Cardinals vs Cowboys |
| Falcons vs Buccaneers |
| Raiders vs Jets |
| Colts vs Jaguars |
| Browns vs Steelers |
| Titans vs Bengals |
| Chargers vs Rams |
| Chiefs vs Broncos |
| Patriots vs Dolphins |
Vikings vs. Lions
This might be the only Vikings TD scorer I bet on for the rest of the season, and that’s WR Justin Jefferson at +180. I’ve backed him in five of Minnesota's seven games, and that’s mainly because of the price.
When I bet him last week against the Colts, I was quite confident that QB Kyler Murray could find him in the end zone, and even though he got a red-zone target, it was ultimately TE T.J. Hockenson who got the TD.
I am showing value on Hockenson to score a TD as well, but there's limited ways he can score. It likely needs to be closer to the red zone since his longest TD reception over the last two years is 17 yards.
Jefferson, on the other hand, can score from anywhere on the field. He faces a Lions secondary that ranks 24th in defensive DVOA against the pass, 31st against the deep ball and 30th to WR1.
I have bet on Lions WR Jameson Williams in each of the last two games, and while I’m showing value on him to keep his touchdown streak going, there’s absolutely no way I’m passing on Amon-Ra St. Brown at +130.
The Sun God is second in the NFL with 15 red-zone targets and has four end-zone targets on the season. The problem is that he hasn’t scored since Week 3, but he’s still averaging over 10 targets per game.
The challenge is the Vikings defense. Minnesota has been unreal at neutralizing offenses with the confusing blitzes and coverage schemes, but I believe that isn’t sustainable for all 17 games, and somebody is eventually going to exploit it.
If there’s a team that could do that with their personnel, it’s the Lions at home. The matchups where you can get an elite WR like St. Brown at plus-money are few and far between, so let’s take advantage.
VERDICT: Justin Jefferson +180 | Amon-Ra St. Brown +130
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Ravens vs. Bills
Let’s do a checklist:
- Bills coming off Bye? Check.
- Bills WR DJ Moore practiced all week without an issue? Check.
- Facing the Ravens defense that just got torched for four passing TDs? Check!
We’re taking DJ Moore in this spot. In two “healthy” games this season, Moore has produced eight targets and a touchdown against the Texans and 10 targets against the Chargers.
In those two games, Moore's targets per route run was 0.37, which would rank higher than Puka Nacua or Jaxon Smith-Njigba over a full season. Obviously it’s a small sample, but the Bills have shown they plan to use Moore heavily. If he can just stay healthy, this is a steal of a price.
I would also point out that regardless of Moore's status, don’t overlook WR Keon Coleman at +400 — he’s scored in three straight games and he can stretch the field as a vertical threat in ways Moore can’t. Coleman will need to be out there on certain scoring drives for Buffalo.
The Ravens are expecting to finally get QB Lamar Jackson back for this showdown. Hopefully this offense starts to resemble what we saw in the opening month of the season when he was healthy.
Coming off a high ankle sprain, I don’t expect him to scramble as much, but when you have an electric wide receiver like Zay Flowers, all Jackson will likely need to do is set up a screen and let Flowers do the work.
Flowers has scored in three of six games, and two of those TDs came from quick throws that he took to the house.
The Ravens were criticized for giving Flowers that huge contract in the offseason, but as my Touchdown Show colleague Sean Koerner pointed out, Flowers is operating like the Jaxon Smith-Njigba in this offense with how much of a game-breaker and focal point he has become.
VERDICT: DJ Moore +210 | Zay Flowers +160
- Find First Touchdown picks for every Week 8 game in our expert's TD Model!
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Cardinals vs. Cowboys
Most of the TD scorer lines for this game are steamed with such a high total, but if RB Jeremiyah Love is back, he's the Cardinal we want to back.
Love has scored two TDs this season (one via run, one via pass) and has shown flashes of why he was selected with the third overall pick in the NFL Draft. He leads the team in red-zone carries per game, and backup RBs Tyler Allgeier and Zonovan Knight haven’t been able to capitalize on the lead role.
I know the Cardinals have a habit of giving up on top-five picks in the draft (see Marvin Harrison Jr.), but they just drafted Love to be their workhorse after an excellent college career.
Facing a Cowboys defense that ranks 27th in defensive DVOA against the run with nine rushing TDs allowed (bottom three in the NFL), this should be a good spot for Love to find the end zone.
As I mentioned, this game is super chalky for TD scorers with seven players listed at less than +200, implying there’s going to be a lot of scoring.
If the game total is indicating the Cowboys are going to be in another shootout, then I’m gonna take WR George Pickens at +120.
Pickens caught his second TD of the season against Philly last week, and while he’s never going to outpace WR CeeDee Lamb on targets near the end zone, Pickens has still seen a red-zone target in five straight games.
With the Cardinals defense ranking last in defensive DVOA against the pass and 31st in TDs allowed to WRs, I’ll take the chalk!
VERDICT: Jeremiyah Love +155 | George Pickens +120
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Falcons vs. Buccaneers
In a case of “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it," I’m going back to Falcons TE Kyle Pitts.
Pitts is finally showing his potential after being taken with such a high draft pick, and QB Michael Penix Jr. is showcasing him a lot over the last few weeks.
In five games with Penix, Pitts leads the team with six red-zone targets and four touchdowns, while ranking second on the team in targets per route run behind WR Drake London.
Another factor for why I’m leaning on Pitts again is he has a very low aDOT (3.9). The weather in Tampa Bay is expected to be wet. I’m dubious about the deep ball being effective in those conditions.
The Bucs defense has allowed a touchdown to a TE in three of the last four games. Let’s ride that trend while Pitts is hot.
My initial read on this game was to go with WR Chris Godwin, but he has since dropped from +310 to +210.
Unless you want to take Cade “Cardio” Otton at +300, this is a game where I’d avoid Bucs Anytime TD props because there’s almost no value.
The only option I’d consider is RB Bucky Irving to score twice at +600 because he’s absolutely taken off over the last few games. The Bucs have given him 64 carries over the last three games, while also featuring him in the passing game.
If the weather is going to be miserable, let’s take the running back that should likely see 20+ touches against a Falcons defense that ranks bottom-three in rushing TDs allowed to RBs (7) and bottom-three in passing TDs to RBs (3).
VERDICT: Kyle Pitts +300 | Bucky Irving 2+ TDs +600
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Raiders vs. Jets
This might be Kirk Cousins’ last game as the Raiders starting quarterback, so I want to take advantage of his familiarity with WR Jalen Nailor.
Cousins and Nailor played together in Minnesota for a couple of seasons, and Nailor is starting to get some extra looks since he came back from his concussion. Over the last two games, he’s operated as the WR2 behind Tre Tucker and has run a route on 68% of dropbacks and seen nine total targets.
Nailor didn’t end up scoring, but the encouraging part about those games is he saw two end-zone targets and has seemingly taken over Cody White’s role.
With Tucker taking off over the last couple of games and the looming threat of TE Brock Bowers, Nailor could see a few more looks near the end zone as defenses panic and try to stop those two.
At +500, I’m willing to take a shot on a receiver that scored 10 TDs over the previous two seasons in Minnesota.
It’s been fun watching the Jets finally find some complementary receivers for WR Garrett Wilson, as Omar Cooper has scored in the last two games and TE Mason Taylor exploded for two touchdowns in Week 7.
However, let’s not forget where the Jets passing game starts, and that’s Wilson. I like him to score at +190.
I won’t pretend there aren't more mouths to feed now for QB Geno Smith, but he got chewed out by Wilson last week due to the disconnect between the two.
Now facing the Raiders at home, this is a great get-right spot for Wilson, who leads the Jets in targets per route run and first-read target share.
The Raiders defense has also started to implode with eight TDs allowed to wide receivers — and all eight have come over the last four games.
VERDICT: Garrett Wilson +190 | Jalen Nailor +500
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Colts vs. Jaguars
It’s grim when trying to pick Colts TD scorers for Week 8.
The Colts are hard to trust these days because they’re in fire-sale mode and it’s hard to pinpoint if other key pieces like WR Josh Downs or RB Jonathan Taylor will be on the roster by kickoff after trading guard Quenton Nelson.
If I’m taking a Colt, it will be WR Laquon Treadwell in the hopes that he can make a big play on this Jaguars secondary.
Treadwell and TE Tyler Warren might be the only two Colts not mentioned in trade rumors. Treadwell mainly lines up on the outside in the Alec Pierce role, and despite the Jags' defensive improvements, they are still prone to lapses with the deep ball and rank last in defensive DVOA against WR1s and deep passes.
At +800, I’ll take one last stab on Treadwell to score his first TD since the 2021 season.
I haven’t bet a Trevor Lawrence TD prop since he inexplicably took a knee against the Patriots at the 1-yard line with eight minutes to go.
My bitterness will need to be put aside because I’m taking him to score his first TD of the season.
Lawrence had nine rushing TDs last season, with seven of those coming after the London games, and now he faces a Colts defense that just traded away their best run stopper in DT DeForest Buckner.
Another point worth mentioning is under head coach Liam Coen, Lawrence’s scramble rate sees a significant jump when he’s not blitzed, and the Colts blitz at the lowest rate in the NFL at 15%.
VERDICT: Trevor Lawrence +350 | Laquon Treadwell +800
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Browns vs. Steelers
We finally hit our Deshaun Watson TD bet! It only took us seven games but the NFL’s leading scrambler used his legs to get past the Titans.
Now, we pivot over to WR KC Concepcion at +370 because this might finally be the right time for the Browns to utilize his athleticism.
Concepcion is coming off the best game of his career in Week 7, where he caught eight balls for 144 yards, and he now has five red-zone touches on the season.
The touchdowns are coming, and facing a Steelers defense that is a bit weaker against the pass than the run, I think the Browns will continue to find ways to scheme Concepcion into a scoring opportunity.
Did the Steelers finally figure out that TE Darnell Washington is a massive end-zone threat?
It seems like it took Pittsburgh over a year to figure out what we all saw from the beginning as Washington has taken a massive leap in this offense with three TDs over his last four games.
Washington leads the team with six end-zone targets, and he is such an obvious mismatch in scoring range that I fully expect QB Aaron Rodgers to test the Browns a few times to see if this 6-foot-7 behemoth will bully his way into another score.
VERDICT: KC Concepcion +370 | Darnell Washington +350
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Titans vs. Bengals
It’s a weekly theme with my TD Preview to mention that there’s a TON of value on Titans TD scorers.
The Tennessee offense has sputtered for the majority of the season, but one player I’m circling is WR Elic Ayomanor at +550. He saw a huge boost in snap share in Week 7 with WR Calvin Ridley out, and that may ultimately continue that role if Ridley is still limited or even traded.
The Titans ruled out WR Carnell Tate as well, which should only help Ayomanor. He only has one TD this year (Week 1), but the Titans continue to try and find him in the end zone as he leads the team with five end-zone targets and is tied with WR Wan’Dale Robinson with eight red-zone targets.
The Titans have been pretty consistent with their offense, and Ayomanor has seen at least one red-zone target in all but one game.
After the Ravens got their behinds handed to them by the Bengals, it’s not an easy task to find a decent TD bet for Cincy. Usually, I go to WR Tee Higgins, but he’s priced down to +115, almost nearly the same price as Ja’Marr Chase.
If sportsbooks are going to price them both nearly the same, then give me Chase at plus-odds. We know Joe Burrow is going to spam his receivers with targets at least for the first half, and my price for Chase in this matchup would be closer to -120 given how much the Bengals have mostly abandoned the run game.
I’d also strongly consider Burrow to sneak one in since the Titans have allowed a rushing TD to a QB in two of the last three weeks.
VERDICT: Ja’Marr Chase +110 | Elic Ayomanor +550
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Chargers vs. Rams
I’m doing something a bit unorthodox with the Rams this week.
Rams TD props are always going to be mega-steamed at the top, but my guy Sean Koerner proposed on our weekly Touchdown Show, “Why don’t we just bet on both running backs?”
At first, I didn’t think it was a good idea, but the more I dove into it, it started to make a bit more sense, especially when you see how much the Rams lean on the run game.
Blake Corum has scored in three straight games (two rushing and one receiving), but Kyren Williams has also scored in two of those games, showing that the Rams' plan to use both backs as much as possible to be effective.
Even when you go back to last season when Corum scored six touchdowns (five games), Williams scored a TD in three of them. That means in the eight games Corum has scored, Williams scored in five of them. Pretty decent hit rate!
Then, when you factor in all the receiver injuries on the Rams' side, I’d rather just go with Koerner’s play that he has dubbed the “Fear & Loathing In Los Angeles TD Parlay."
On the other side, this one is a bit of a desperation play because I think the Chargers season is already lost, but I’m going to roll with WR Quentin Johnston at +310.
Johnston hasn’t scored yet this season, but he scored eight TDs in each of the previous two seasons, and he has always been an excellent deep threat despite his catching ability being on par with a trash can.
After coming off the bye, I think the Chargers' passing offense should see a bit of a boost after another week of integrating Mike McDaniel’s system, which should give a WR like Johnston a chance to finally score his first TD.
VERDICT: Quentin Johnston +310 | Kyren Williams & Blake Corum “Fear & Loathing In Los Angeles TD Parlay" +385
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Chiefs vs. Broncos
It was only a matter of time before we saw Broncos WR Jaylen Waddle get dinged up. I'm not trying to be a hater. Waddle has played at least 14 games in each year of his career, but his risk for leaving games early is something you need to price in when evaluating his TD props.
If Waddle is out or limited, I want WR1 Courtland Sutton in this spot at +280.
Sutton has only scored one TD this year despite seeing five end-zone targets in seven games, and this is a matchup where he may very well see 1-on-1 coverage on the outside.
Even if CB Mansoor Delane plays (he didn’t practice all week), I still like Sutton’s chances to win that matchup, especially if Bo Nix actually plays to his potential under Sean Payton instead of what we saw in Week 1.
Speaking of potential, what the hell happened to Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy? This is supposed to be a breakout year for him with QB Patrick Mahomes back and WR Rashee Rice missing time.
I’m going to run it back with Worthy because I think the Chiefs will try to get him more involved downfield to open up the run game for Kenneth Walker.
At some point, something has to give for Worthy. You can’t lead the team in red-zone targets, deep targets, first-read target share, and then be a complete stiff.
We need to keep betting on Worthy if he’s going to be running a route 85% of the time, because other than Walker, he’s the only Chief who can provide explosive plays.
VERDICT: Courtland Sutton +250 | Xavier Worthy +285
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Patriots vs. Dolphins
The Dolphins offense looks to have found a new identity with RB Ollie Gordon racking up the touchdowns over the last few weeks.
We cashed on Gordon last week at +200, but that TD price is long gone now. That means we need to pivot, and I’m going with TE Greg Dulcich at +475.
Part of the reason we go to Dulcich is he leads the Dolphins with four red-zone targets and runs nearly triple the routes of the TE2 and TE3 in this offense. There’s not really a ton of competition at the position for Miami.
The Patriots defense has been pretty stingy overall to the pass, but it's tough to resist taking a TE1 as a home 'dog at +400 or better.
I’m starting to come to the conclusion that we might be undervaluing the scoring potential of Patriots QB Drake Maye.
Maye has scored a touchdown in two of the last three games, and through seven weeks, he leads the NFL in total scrambles.
His scramble rate tends to be the highest when he isn’t blitzed, and the Dolphins blitz at the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL — and it’s not like Miami’s run defense is scaring anyone.
With most Patriots TD options pretty steamed at this stage (even Eli Raridon is down to +370), I’d rather bank on Maye continuing to use his legs in a decent matchup on the road.
VERDICT: Drake Maye +350 | Greg Dulcich +420
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