Week 8 of the NFL season is officially underway, and our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, has locked in his top NFL prop bets for Sunday, featuring picks for Ravens vs. Bills, Titans vs. Bengals, Colts vs. Jaguars, and more.
Let's get into his NFL Week 8 player props and best bets for Sunday, November 1.
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NFL Player Props Week 8
- Devontez Walker Under 2.5 Receiving Yards (-112) | 20+ Receiving Yards (+400)
- Joe Burrow Under 35.5 Pass Attempts / Drew Sample Over 1.5 Receptions (+355)
- Jonathan Taylor Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
- Jaylen Warren Under 25.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Michael Penix Jr. Over 1.5 Rushing Yards (-119)
- Kirk Cousins Under 240.5 Passing Yards (-111)
- Christian Benford Under 4.5 Tackles & Assists / Deone Walker Over 3.5 Tackles & Assists (+258)
- Tyler Allgeier Under 16.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Devontez Walker Receiving Yards
Two-part play here. My main bet is Devontez Walker Under 2.5 receiving yards.
With the Ravens' WR room finally healthy, Ja’Kobi Lane has pushed Walker into a very limited WR4 role. Rookie TE Josh Cuevas is also breaking out a bit, and with him and Hibner involved, I think there are even fewer routes available for Walker.
The catch is Walker almost exclusively sees low-percentage downfield shots. His 23.5 aDOT is somehow the lowest of his 3-year career. So, if he does catch one, he tends to make it count.
That creates a really weird distribution. In 10,000 sims, his average is 9.73 yards, but his median is zero.
I have him around 65% to stay Under 2.5, but also around 25% to clear 20+, which is closer to +300.
It reminds me of the Josh Palmer bet earlier this year where I basically said he was going 0/0/0 or 1/40/1, and of course we got the latter. So, I’m putting 0.75u on Under 2.5 and 0.15u on 20+ at +400.
I love the under, but this is the cleanest way to protect against the exact type of one catch nuke that can beat it.
On prediction markets like Kalshi, under 0.5 receptions is the way to go, as opposed to betting "No" in the "10+ Yards" market.
Again, either going 0/0 or 1/20+ is the logic here
Pick: Devontez Walker Under 2.5 Receiving Yards (-112) | 20+ Receiving Yards (+400)
Joe Burrow, Drew Sample Same-Game Parlay
I fully expect Joe Burrow to torch Tennessee, especially after the Titans traded Jeffery Simmons. He should have a squeaky-clean pocket, complete a high percentage of his passes and potentially build an early 1-2 score lead, which can really lower his pass-attempt floor.
Oddly enough, Burrow has also been scrambling from clean pockets at a much higher rate, which can eat into attempts as well.
With Carnell Tate looking doubtful, it’s even tougher to see Cam Ward and the Titans keeping this close. This should be a great spot for Cincinnati to lean on its defense and run game.
I project Burrow closer to 33.8 attempts and love Under 35.5 -110 at BetMGM; 37+ NO at 57¢ on Kalshi is also excellent value with the extra attempt included.
That’ll be my main prop from this game, and I’ll track it solo as well.
But I also love pairing it with Drew Sample Over 1.5 receptions because I can’t think of a more electric sweat than Drew Sample overs.
With Tanner Hudson and Erick All now on IR, the Bengals TE room is getting pretty thin, and Sample’s playing time should climb.
Sample also tends to get high-percentage looks for basically no yardage. So, something like 2/10/0 is very much in play.
I love getting the anti-correlation boost in the parlay price, because I actually think there’s sneaky positive correlation in the game script.
If Cincinnati builds the lead I’m expecting, Burrow’s attempts should come down while Sample is one of the players they tend to use more when playing from ahead.
Parlay: Joe Burrow Under 35.5 Pass Attempts / Drew Sample Over 1.5 Receptions (+355)
Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards
Game log chasers will point out Jonathan Taylor has cleared this in seven of eight games, and obviously I won’t be shocked if one of the greatest RBs of this era does it again. But this is the lowest projection/floor I’ve had for him in quite some time.
There’s a ton of uncertainty around a potential trade, and after Indy already dealt Quenton Nelson, the writing feels like it’s on the wall.
Seth McGowan also saw season-high usage last week in a close, one-score game, which could be the Colts tipping their hand that they want to limit JT and avoid an injury before the deadline.
Now they’re 10-point road 'dogs against the No. 1 run defense by DVOA, while the OL just lost Nelson. If Indy falls behind by multiple scores, there’s a very real path where they essentially put JT on ice.
I have him closer to 55.5 yards, with an even lower floor depending on game script. Other books are already dropping into the mid-50s, so I want to get ahead of it at 60.5 before this gets steamed down.
Pick: Jonathan Taylor Under 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115, DraftKings)
Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards
Game log chasers are probably frothing at the mouth since he’s cleared this line in every game this season.
But Pittsburgh used Rico Dowdle a bit more last week in a Kenny Gainwell-lite type role, which could take some receiving work off Jaylen Warren’s plate.
Warren has been so good as a runner this year, and I expect him to rip a couple big runs against a leaky Browns run defense. Meanwhile, Cleveland has been much better at limiting RB receiving production.
I have his median closer to 22 yards.
Pick: Jaylen Warren Under 25.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Michael Penix Jr. Rushing Yards
Don’t get me wrong, Penix is absolutely in the exclusive “Mall Santa” club right now. He’s going to sit in the pocket and scramble at one of the lowest rates in the league.
But every Mall Santa has his reasons. For Penix, it’s partly just not his game, plus the multiple ACL surgeries, including last season, and then the rib injury in Week 5.
So, it makes sense that he’s been cautious. Still, he’s scrambled at least once in each of the last few weeks, and two of those scrambles hit 15+ mph according to Next Gen Stats. He has more juice than people realize. He’s not Jared Goff running like he has two torn hammys.
His season-long rushing total is 12 carries for four yards, which looks horrific until you realize seven of those 12 carries are kneel-downs, despite him only having five starts. Another was a bad snap he had to fall on for no gain.
So, the box score is making him look even more immobile than he actually is. I really just need one 2-3 yard scramble, and being a road 'dog helps reduce the kneel-down risk. He has also looked a little more willing to use his legs lately as he gets healthier.
I don’t need much for Christmas, Santa, but 2+ yards would be a nice stocking stuffer.
Pick: Michael Penix Jr. Over 1.5 Rushing Yards (-119, DraftKings)
Kirk Cousins Passing Yards
Kirk Cousins has cleared this number in six straight games, which is exactly why this feels a little bit like a trap to me.
After starting 0-3, the Raiders have now lost four straight, and this is right around the point where I figured we might start getting closer to No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza making his first career start.
The problem is their schedule gets brutal after this, and I can’t imagine they want his debut coming at San Francisco or at home against Seattle.
The most likely outcome is Cousins playing the entire game and this staying relatively close. In that script, Las Vegas should be more balanced and may finally be able to get its awful run game going against a weaker Jets defense that is also missing three defensive linemen, including first-round pick David Bailey.
Cousins has also been much less productive when playing from ahead, averaging just 5.8 YPA with the lead compared to 8.2 when trailing.
So, the close/positive script that should help the Raiders also happens to be the tougher setup for him to pile up passing yards.
If we get the opposite script, where Cousins struggles or Vegas falls behind in the 2nd half, there’s at least a non-zero chance Mendoza enters the game.
I’m not saying that’s 100%, or even the most likely outcome. The point is simply that the probability is above 0%, which gives this under a nice little escape hatch if the game starts turning into the exact pass heavy script that has fueled Cousins’ overs lately.
I hit a bunch of pass yard unders in similar spots last year for basically this exact reason. Either we get the more balanced game script that naturally lowers Cousins’ volume, or things go badly enough that Mendoza becomes a possibility.
These are tricky to assign a true median to, but I like how both ends of the game-script distribution can feed into Cousins’ floor here.
Pick: Kirk Cousins Under 240.5 Passing Yards (-111, DraftKings)
Christian Benford Tackles + Assists / Deone Walker Tackles + Assists
Christian Benford will be a solo play too. Baltimore is a brutal matchup for outside CB tackles, and I’d price his Under 4.5 closer to -170.
Deone Walker gets the opposite setup. He helps a ton in run support, which fits this matchup much better, and I’d price his Over 3.5 closer to -125.
So, I'm betting a nice little correlated tackle parlay at +258.
Parlay: Christian Benford Under 4.5 Tackles & Assists / Deone Walker Over 3.5 Tackles & Assists (+258)
Tyler Allgeier Rushing Yards Over/Under
Bam Knight took a slight lead in what was already a pretty split committee last week, and now Jeremiyah Love is returning, so Tyler Allgeier could be cooked.
I’m guessing he still mixes in for short yardage and passing situations, but that only lowers his floor in this market.
I have his median closer to 13.5 yards and would price Under 16.5 closer to -145.
Pick: Tyler Allgeier Under 16.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
