Bengals vs. Bills Best Bet: 2 Elite Moneyline Betting Trends (Sunday, Jan. 22)
Picture by Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Burrow.
- There are two elite betting trends that align with a pick for Bengals vs. Bills.
- The trends have had a 45% and 21% ROI since 2003 and only target divisional round games.
- Read further to glean what the trends are, what the principles behind them are and how to apply them.
The Bengals will face off against the Bills in a rematch of a game earlier this month that was canceled after Buffalo safety Damar Hamlin collapsed and had to be resuscitated on the field.
Hamlin has recovered since and has been present in the Bills facility this entire week. The 24-year-old is expected to be at this Bengals vs. Bills game in Orchard Park on Sunday.
And this contest is expected to see snow befitting the energy expected for a playoff game in Orchard Park — and Hamlin’s return to the sidelines.
The Action Network has developed two elite betting trends that align with one side of the moneyline on Sunday.
The two trends specifically target the divisional round. One of them has a 45% return on investment over 45 games since 2003. The other has a 21% ROI over 73 games during the same timeframe.
Hat tip to my colleague Brandon Anderson for creating this algorithm.
Bengals vs. Bills Best Bet
Elementally, this betting system fades home divisional favorites — especially ones that are good teams.
Let’s start with the 21% ROI system with a higher sample size. The basic principle is simple: Fade divisional home favorites no matter what.
If you were to have bet on every single road underdog on the moneyline since 2003, you’d have gone 26-47 for just a 36% win rate.
But remember, these are underdogs with big payouts. A $500 per game bettor would have lost more than he or she won — but would have been paid out a profit of over $7,600.
The 45% ROI system follows similar principles, but tightens the parameters.
For this one, you’d bet on every divisional round underdog that’s facing off against a team with at least a 75% winning percentage.
This system has gone 19-26 for a 42% win rate. But a $500 per game bettor would be up over $10,000 through betting underdogs on the ML.
Both these systems jibe with the Bengals at a market-best clip of +215 at FanDuel.
Picks: Bengals +215 or better