Zylbert’s NFL Over/Unders: Will Another AFC East Divisional Clash Go Under the Total?
Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold (14).
Betting odds: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Channel: CBS
Zylbert’s 2018 NFL Over/Under Betting Record: 5-3-1, +1.7 units
Last Week’s Result: 49ers-Cardinals Under 42 (WIN)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
Things were looking up for both the Dolphins and Jets early this season.
Miami actually had a share of first place in the division as recently as a few weeks ago, when they were 4-2. Since then, however, things have not been so rosy. Both clubs have each dropped two in a row — all by double-digits — making this a critical affair for the two AFC East rivals to get their seasons back on track.
Both teams have their respective injuries, which is the main angle I’ll use as it concerns this over/under.
I lost an over/under bet a couple of weeks ago involving Miami’s incumbent starting quarterback Brock Osweiler, when the Dolphins fell to Detroit. But I won’t be backing down from such bets involving the 2012 second-round draft choice.
Though the over has gone 3-0 in his starts, Osweiler appears to be regressing to his norm if his last outing is any indication. He’s coming off his worst game since assuming the starting duties under center, completing just 21-of-37 passes for 241 yards to go with an interception.
If Osweiler continues to meander along like that, as he has typically done in his seven-year career, it will only help this under wager. Given the opponent here, there’s a solid shot we get a similar performance. While it may not rank high, the Jets’ defense is actually underrated and just might be the team’s top strength.
They are one of two defensive units with double-digit interceptions (10) and forced fumbles (10). The Jets are excellent at limiting opponents on third downs, holding them to a 33% conversion rate, which is tied for third-best in the NFL.
That figures to put the pressure on a Dolphins’ offense that is converting only 36.5% of its third-downs, which ranks 25th.
New York will get a huge boost, too, if their top corner Trumaine Johnson returns from injury this week. It would especially be bad news for a Dolphins receiving corps that recently lost Albert Wilson for the season and might be without Kenny Stills again.
The Jets could be down their main wide-outs, Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwa, who both barely practiced this week and will be game-time decisions. They both missed last week, and it resulted in Darnold manufacturing his lowest output of the year (153 passing yards).
The 2018 No. 2 overall draft pick has been unimpressive on the road this season. In each of his four starts away from MetLife Stadium, Darnold has failed to top 200 yards passing. It will only be tougher to reach that plateau if his targets are Rishard Matthews, Jermaine Kearse and a bunch of scraps.
Just as important, I expect the Dolphins’ defense to bounce back with an improved effort in this spot. They’ve allowed a whopping 102 points (!) in their past three games, but there’s just too much talent for that to continue.
In any event, this Miami ‘D had success against the Jets in Week 2, when the Dolphins held them to a mere 12 points.
That encounter also kept a notable recent trend going, as AFC East rivalry games have seen the under go 11-4 since last season.
The line has gone down to since I grabbed it 44, so it’s recommended that you buy the points if you can. Make sure to follow me in The Action Network app to get alerts whenever I make a pick.
Play: UNDER 44 (-115)