It’s the ranking nobody wants to top… or that no coach wants to lead, for that matter. General manager Chris Ballard is out in Indianapolis. Washington’s Terry McLaurin is out too, though for a very different reason. That leaves Dan Quinn alone at the top of Kalshi’s next NFL coach fired board, with traders increasingly convinced he’s next to go.
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Next NFL coach fired odds: current Kalshi prices
Kalshi’s contract, NFL Next Coach Out, is pretty straightforward: any head coach fired, forced to resign, or otherwise pushed out of the job before Feb. 15, 2027 triggers a payout. Here’s where the board stood Thursday, with the 24-hour move listed:
| Coach | Team | Price | 24-hour move |
| Dan Quinn | Washington | 60% | +13 |
| Nick Sirianni | Philadelphia | 21% | +6 |
| Todd Bowles | Tampa Bay | 20% | -4 |
| Aaron Glenn | New York Jets | 14% | Flat |
| Shane Steichen | Indianapolis | 12% | +9 |
| Jim Harbaugh | LA Chargers | 7% | -3 |
These prices are dynamic, moving by the hour as news breaks; any fresh story or rumor can reshuffle the board, so treat this as a snapshot, not a fixed read.
Colts fire Chris Ballard: what it means for Shane Steichen
Owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon fired Ballard on Monday, a day after Indianapolis blew a 13-point lead and fell 26-20 to a Tennessee team that hadn’t won all season. Ballard had run the Colts’ front office since 2017; Irsay-Gordon said the franchise needed a change in leadership to be truly competitive again. Time will tell if she’s right.
Steichen himself wasn’t the one let go, but his number moved anyway, climbing to 12% on Kalshi: still well behind Quinn and Bowles. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports that rival teams expect Indianapolis to be sellers ahead of the Nov. 10 trade deadline, which puts extra weight on how the Colts play over the next few weeks.
Commanders: Dan Quinn, the Steve Wilks hire and Terry McLaurin’s injury
The numbers aren’t doing Washington any favors. The defense ranks among the league’s worst: 29th in points allowed, 26th in total yards, which goes a long way toward explaining where the team finds itself. When a team struggles, the coach usually takes the heat too. Washington also quietly reshuffled its defensive staff: longtime NFL assistant Steve Wilks signed on last week in a behind-the-scenes role, splitting his time between advising Quinn and first-year coordinator Daronte Jones on scheme. He stays off the sideline on Sundays, and the move doesn’t read as a signal about Quinn’s own job.
The bad news didn’t wait long, and what was already a rough stretch got worse. McLaurin tore his patellar tendon and is done for the season, Quinn confirmed Tuesday. Washington, sitting at 1-4-1, now has to replace its top target for the rest of the year right as the coach’s seat keeps heating up.
Todd Bowles, the Buccaneers and the rest of the board
Bowles opened the season as one of the names to watch after Tampa Bay stumbled out of the gate, and his price briefly climbed well above where it sits now. At 20% and trending down, he’s cooled off as the Buccaneers have found their footing: in this prediction market, a team’s winning streak and its coach’s price tend to move in opposite directions.
Sirianni’s climb to 21% tracks with Philadelphia’s own trouble: quarterback Jalen Hurts is dealing with blood clots and may not play again this season. Glenn sits in the middle of the board at 14% with the Jets scuffling, while Harbaugh, despite a winless Chargers team, still only trades at 7%, a sign the market isn’t convinced ownership moves on him mid-season. Miami’s Jeff Hafley, the league’s other winless coach, doesn’t carry meaningful volume on the board at all.
Trade deadline (Nov. 10) and what could move the market
The Nov. 10 deadline is the next date to watch. Fowler flagged guard Quenton Nelson and defensive tackle Jerry Tillery as two names to watch, while defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, Grover Stewart, and receivers Josh Downs and Keenan Allen are all playing out expiring deals: giving a new GM plenty to work with if Indianapolis sells.
A heavy teardown would say a lot about where the front office sees Steichen’s season heading, and that’s the kind of news that can swing a market like this one overnight.
