Our 3 Favorite Bets for Browns vs. Jets on Monday Night Football
Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Le’Veon Bell
Browns at Jets Betting Odds
- Odds: Browns -6.5
- Total: 45.5
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ESPN
Odds above as of noon ET on Monday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).
The Jets host the Browns on Monday Night Football … without Sam Darnold.
When news broke that the Jets quarterback (mono) wouldn’t play in the primetime matchup, sportsbooks moved New York from a 2.5- to 6.5-point home underdog.
How else has Darnold’s absence impacted this game from a betting perspective?
Our staff reveals their three favorite bets for Browns-Jets, featuring an over/under pick and props.
Mike Randle: Under 45
The Browns have major offensive line issues as illustrated by Tennesse’s five sacks and seven quarterback hits in Week 1. This bodes poorly against Jets defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, who brings pressure on almost every play.
Baker Mayfield must play better coming off a three-interception performance.
With Sam Darnold (mono) out, it’s difficult to see a high point total with Trevor Siemian at the helm. Wide receiver Robby Anderson’s threat as a deep-ball receiver is nullified, and New York is still without versatile tight end Chris Herndon (suspended).
While the Odell Beckham-Williams feud makes nice copy, the Browns really need to get running back Nick Chubb going. Chubb was an efficient 17 rushes for 75 yards but faces a Jets defense that hopes to have C.J. Mosley and run-stopping defensive tackle Quinnen Williams (ankle) back from Week 1 injuries.
The Jets will feature a conservative game plan without Darnold, and the Browns’ offensive line woes makes the under a strong play for me.
Matthew Freedman: Le’Veon Bell Under 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Jets are significant underdogs, and Bell got nine targets in Week 1, so it’s easy to imagine that he will be heavily targeted again tonight.
But he had just 32 yards receiving last week, so it’s not as if the Jets passing game is doing him any favors, and that’s especially the case now that Darnold has kissed off the next 2-6 weeks of action and made way for the flaccid Siemian to start.
Even if the Jets have a pass-heavy game script, they might not be effective enough on offense with Siemian at quarterback to sustain drives long enough for Bell to get the target volume he needs to hit the over.
On top of that, Bell (shoulder) is dealing with an injury and is officially questionable to play. Although he’s likely to suit up, the Jets might be inclined to limit his snaps, especially since head coach Adam Gase tends to prefer committee backfields anyway and backup Ty Montgomery is one of the league’s better pass-catching backs.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Bell projected for 29.2 yards receiving, so I’m easily on the under.
Sean Koerner: Ryan Griffin Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-140)
As soon as I took this line, some books moved their odds to 19.5 (over -125), but DraftKings still has the above number posted at the time of writing.
Sure, betting on a player like Griffin to do good is just asking for trouble most of the time. However, he will be running a route on at least 90% of Siemian’s pass attempts so it’s reasonable to expect he catches at least two to three balls.
The Browns will likely be focusing on Jamison Crowder, Anderson and even Bell out of the backfield, leaving Griffin open often. Have to imagine a veteran like Siemian will take what he’s given and pepper Griffin with a handful of targets.
I’d actually bet this number all the way up until 24-26 range.
Scott T. Miller: Griffin Over 17.5 Receiving Yards
I’m piggybacking on Sean here.
We talk about Week 1 overreactions a lot — and for good reason. With most bettors being prone to knee-jerk reactions, you can find some nice value in the betting market if you simply trust the process.
Griffin is a great example of this: The Jets TE posted just 10 receiving yards on four targets in New York’s season-opener against the Bills. That, in combination with the Jets now starting Siemian, has the market souring on Griffin.
But New York, which is 6.5-point underdogs on Monday night, should have a pass-heavy game script against a Browns defense that just allowed 55 yards to Titans TE Delanie Walker. Sean, our NFL projections guru, has Griffin pegged for 24.7 receiving yards, giving the Over 17.5 a decent cushion.