Buccaneers vs Saints Picks, Odds, NFL Week 4 Prediction
Getty Images. Pictured: Baker Mayfield (left) and Derek Carr (right).
Buccaneers vs Saints Odds
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -180 |
Buccaneers vs. Saints odds have the home team laying 3.5 points in NFL Week 4.
Last week, the Saints were barely edged out by the Packers and suffered their first loss of the season. The Buccaneers were also handed their first loss last week, a 14-point defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football.
Let's break the game and make out Buccaneers vs. Saints pick below.
The Buccaneers offense has been more successful than anticipated, and this is thanks to their ability to throw the football.
The Bucs offensive line is one of the better pass-protecting units in the league. This is reflected in their allowed sack rate, which is a minuscule 3.1%, the fourth best in the NFL.
PFF has their pass block rating at 70, putting them in the top 10 for that metric. Since Baker Mayfield is protected in the pocket, he takes better care of the ball and makes better decisions. He has only one interception this season.
When the Saints offense succeeds, it is usually on the back of their passing game as well. However, their pass blocking is not nearly as successful as Tampa’s. New Orleans has allowed a high sack rate of 10.3%, the seventh worst in the NFL.
The Saints offensive line may be in for a world of hurt, considering that the Buccaneers have blitzed on nearly half of their defensive snaps, pressuring the opposing quarterback over a quarter of the time. Tampa Bay is putting the opposing quarterback under duress, which is clear when you see its forced five interceptions, second to only the Bills.
Bet Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans at FanDuel
New Orleans’ defensive stats look great at first glance, but it is important to add context to its season to date. The Saints have played the Titans, Panthers and Packers — two of these teams have young and inexperienced quarterbacks, and the other has Ryan Tannehill.
They have not faced a true test quite yet.
Both of these teams struggle to move the ball on the ground. The Saints are still without Jamaal Williams (though will get Alvin Kamara back), and the Buccaneers have yet to find any success with Rachaad White.
The Saints and Buccaneers have run block grades of less than 53, which puts them among the ten-worst run-blocking units in the league. Both teams are averaging less than 3.5 rush yards per attempt, and have a total of less than 300 rushing yards this season.
Buccaneers vs. Saints
Betting Picks & Predictions
Tampa Bay has the advantage in the passing game, and that's where this game will be decided.
The matchup is pretty even across the board otherwise, but when you compare offensive lines and pass protection, Mayfield and the Bucs have the advantage.
I will take the underdog in this NFC South matchup.
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