Our football staff is focused on seven of Sunday's biggest games for our NFL predictions in Week 2 on September 20.
First, we'll target Steelers vs. Patriots and Bengals vs. Texans in the early window. Later in the afternoon, we have a pair of picks for Commanders vs. Cowboys and Seahawks vs. Cardinals. We also have picks for Vikings vs. Bears, Dolphins vs. 49ers, and more.
Let's dive into our expert NFL picks and best bets for the Week 2 Sunday slate.
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NFL Predictions & Picks — Week 2
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Steelers vs Patriots
By Stuckey
The Patriots are laying 5.5 points here against Pittsburgh, and while I lean toward New England, my favorite contrarian look is actually the Over if the total keeps dropping toward 41.
Last week, the Pittsburgh offense looked awful on paper, but the underlying metrics tell a different story. Aaron Rodgers was actually pushing the ball vertically, averaging 8.8 air yards per attempt — that's a massive jump from league-worst numbers last year.
The stats were just ruined by critical drops from DK Metcalf and a missed pass interference call.
On the other side, the Steelers' defense has huge issues in the secondary. DeShon Elliott is on IR, Joey Porter Jr. is a huge question mark, and they are forced to play washed veterans like Rayshawn Jenkins.
The Steelers used heavy 3-edge looks to generate pressure without blitzing last week, but I think New England can easily scheme up some explosive plays downfield against a patchwork defensive backfield.
With extra rest to prepare, the Patriots should be much sharper.
I lean New England laying the points, but the Over is the far sneakier play.
Pick: Over 41.5 (-110)
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Bengals vs Texans
The Bengals posted an 80.6% series conversion rate in Week 1, indicating their ability to generate first downs or score touchdowns consistently.
The Bengals defense held the Buccaneers to negative EPA per play, a meaningful performance from a unit with historical limitations. They also forced three fumbles and recorded a pick-6.
These takeaways represent the Bengals' ability to disrupt opposing offense and create additional scoring opportunities for their own unit.
Cincinnati's ability on defense to hold an opponent to negative EPA per play while simultaneously generating multiple turnovers indicates both coverage performance and pass-rush effectiveness.
The convergence of these factors — solid offensive efficiency paired with a defense that generated turnovers and limited EPA production — has me wanting to back the Bengals at +3.
Pick: Bengals +3 (-120)
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Vikings vs Bears
As we originally thought coming into the season, Bears games are going to be like the Coors Field of the NFL: A really porous defense paired with arguably the best offense in the league.
Minnesota will put up more resistance on defense than Carolina, but Brian Flores' blitzing style is prone to allowing some big plays on the back end or in the run game when the pressure doesn't get home and the coverage doesn't hold up.
Let's grab Over 47.5 points here.
Pick: Over 47.5 (-115)
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Browns vs Buccaneers
By Stuckey
When it comes to Survivor pools this early in the season, the golden rule is simple: do not get cute.
While many people are already feeling the pain from getting tricky with the Chargers last week, I'm taking the most straightforward path available and taking the Buccaneers in Week 2.
Sometimes I like to save good teams for later in the year, but this is undeniably one of the easiest spots on Tampa Bay's entire schedule.
The Browns are a disaster right now. Deshaun Watson is entirely dysfunctional as an NFL quarterback, the Browns' offensive line is banged up, and they are sorely missing Myles Garrett on defense.
There is a legitimate case to be made that the Browns are the worst team in football.
I'm not overthinking this one. The Buccaneers are at home, they have a competent offense, and their defense should feast on Watson's mistakes.
Take Tampa Bay, advance to Week 3, and keep your Survivor entry alive.
Pick: Buccaneers Moneyline/Survivor Pick
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Commanders vs Cowboys
Washington's offensive approach centers on tempo and pace.
The Commanders run around 73 offensive plays per game, which is a pace that can fatigue defenses throughout the course of a game.
The leaky Cowboys defense could be required to substitute and maintain alertness at a higher frequency, creating potential opportunities for breakdowns.
Jayden Daniels has a 0% turnover-worthy play rate, which helps the Commanders' ability to sustain drives and avoid mistakes.
Washington's offensive balance reflects a 42% run-play rate and 58% pass-play rate, compared to Dallas' 29.3% run-play rate and 70.7% pass-play rate. That balance provides Washington with multiple ways to attack the Cowboys defense.
The Cowboys safety room is very vulnerable. Daniels has the talent to attack downfield against a weak secondary, which should create opportunities for explosive plays in the passing game.
I'll take the 4.5 points with the Commanders.
Pick: Commanders +4.5 (-115)
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Dolphins vs 49ers
By Stuckey
This is one of the grossest games on the entire board.
San Francisco is sitting as a huge 13.5-point favorite, and the Under 44.5 makes the most sense if you are forced to play anything here.
The biggest unknown is the travel hangover for the 49ers returning from their Week 1 trip to Australia. Typically, being out there for a full week creates a physical toll on the body.
However, the Dolphins might genuinely be the worst team in the NFL right now. They just got dismantled by the Raiders, their defensive line was getting smoked off the ball, and Malik Willis looked pretty limited.
Double-digit underdogs in Week 2 historically perform poorly, so the spread is inflated for a valid reason. I expect San Francisco to come out, lean heavily on their rushing attack to control the clock, build a comfortable lead, and just sit on it.
The Dolphins don't have the firepower to turn this into a shootout.
Pick: Under 44.5 (-105)
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Seahawks vs Cardinals
By Bet Labs
Our Bet Labs system titled "Early Season Upsets" targets the inherent volatility of the NFL early in the season, and the Cardinals fit the criteria nicely in this Week 2 NFC West clash.
Historically, Weeks 1-3 of the regular season capture a unique period where teams are at their least predictable. The betting market often struggles to accurately price overhauled rosters, coaching changes, and offseason narratives, inadvertently inflating favorites.
Early season divisional games introduce an added layer of familiarity and rivalry pressure that organically neutralizes the talent gap.
When the point spread is small, the actual difference in preparation and execution is usually much narrower than the line suggests, oftentimes creating outright value on home 'dogs before the market fully adjusts to the realities of the new season.
Arizona is in the exact position this system looks to exploit.
The Cardinals are riding high after an impressive upset victory over the Chargers last week in Mike LaFleur’s debut as head coach, proving they are capable of executing a new scheme effectively right out of the gates.
The market is still slowly adapting to this new coaching regime, likely leaving the Cardinals undervalued with an underrated home-field environment in the desert.
Meanwhile, we are selling high on the Seahawks. Following an injury to Sam Darnold in the first quarter against New England last week, Seattle is turning the offense over to backup quarterback Drew Lock again.
Because Lock played the majority of last week's game and managed to secure a win, the perception of his baseline competency level has been inflated.
Traveling on the road for a divisional game with a backup quarterback is a prime recipe for an early season letdown.
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline (+185)
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