We have you covered with a total of eight NFL player prop picks for Sunday of Week 2.
Our staff has locked in prop bets for almost all of Sunday's big games, starting with Steelers vs. Patriots and Vikings vs. Bears among others, at 1:00 p.m. ET. Then, we have picks for Commanders vs. Cowboys and Jaguars vs. Broncos later in the day. We also have bets for Packers vs. Jets, Saints vs. Ravens, and more.
Let's dig into our NFL player props and best bets for Week 2 of the NFL season on September 20.
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NFL Player Props Week 2
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Steelers vs. Patriots
DeMario Douglas Over 3.5 Receptions (+122)
By Brit Devine
DeMario Douglas led the Patriots in routes and targets last week, running a route on over 80% of the team's passing plays in the second half of Week 1 after the A.J. Brown injury.
We can't read much into the Steelers' Week 1 matchup against a 3rd string QB (Cooper Rush) that was simply limited to check-downs.
However, with the Patriots looking for someone they can trust to move the chains after some horrendous drops by Romeo Doubs in the opener, Douglas will likely find himself with ample opportunity to haul in short-area targets out of the slot against Jalen Ramsey, who isn't even close to the elite CB he was several years ago.
I would play this down to even-money.
Pick: DeMario Douglas Over 3.5 Receptions (+122)
Vikings vs. Bears
Colston Loveland Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Week 1 bagel for Colston Loveland was brutal, especially in a game where the Bears scored 59 points, but the usage was there.
Loveland ran a team-leading 84.2% of the routes last week. He was at 59.2% last season.
During his strong four-game stretch to close last season (Weeks 17-18 + two playoff games), he had a 75.4% route rate. Loveland had 10+ targets in all four games during that span.
Carolina committed coverage resources toward stopping Loveland last week. Obviously, it worked, but the Panthers also gave up a zillion points. Minnesota probably shouldn't take the same approach.
We're getting a discount of almost 10 yards from Loveland's Week 1 line. That seems like an overreaction to one bad game.
Pick: Colston Loveland Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Packers vs. Jets
Adonai Mitchell Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
By Chris Prince
I really like Adonai Mitchell as the Robin to Garrett Wilson's Batman in this Jets offense.
This number feels too light for a matchup against the Packers. Green Bay's defense will likely continue to struggle without Micah Parsons, as the Vikings showed last week when they dropped 39 points.
I'm not expecting the Jets to drop 40 in this game, but I am expecting the Packers to focus on slowing down Breece Hall and Wilson, which should put Mitchell in some very favorable spots.
Mitchell only saw three targets last week, but he caught all three and flashed his big-play ability on a long 40-yard reception.
The Jets were never really challenged last week by the Titans, but they will likely have to be more aggressive against a much better Packers offense, one I'm expecting to put some points on the board.
I love the big-play ability he brings against a suspect secondary, and I'm expecting a bigger dose of targets this week.
Pick: Adonai Mitchell Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Saints vs. Ravens
Chris Olave Under 73.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Saints ran an absurd 85 plays last week while in catch-up mode against the Lions and going to OT.
Tyler Shough dropped back to pass more times than the total number of plays most teams ran.
The Ravens defense has already come up and said they are going to make it a point to take away Chris Olave given the lack of other weapons on the Saints offense, and the Ravens defense played quite well against the Colts in the opener.
Pick: Chris Olave Under 73.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Raiders vs. Chargers
Omarion Hampton Under 63.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
By Brit Devine
With the addition of Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator for the Chargers, it looked like Omarion Hampton's arrow was pointing upward.
However, looking under the hood, it could actually be a significant downgrade for Hampton based on how McDaniel calls the run game.
Last season, the Dolphins ran a zone running scheme at the 12th-highest percentage in the league. De'Von Achane averaged over five yards per carry on those plays.
In Week 1, the Chargers ran a zone run play at the 12th-highest rate in the league. Hampton averaged 1.63 yards per carry on those plays.
This makes sense, because of the 49 RBs last season who had at least 100 carries, Hampton had the 2nd-worst yards per carry on zone run plays (3.19 YPC).
Hampton doesn't seem to have the lateral agility or vision to do well in this running scheme, which is usually a staple of a McDaniel offense.
Not only that, but the Raiders allowed the 7th-lowest YPC on zone runs last season, and they held the Dolphins to just 2.0 YPC on those plays in Week 1.
There are ways this looks like a bad bet when the game is over, but schematically, it's about as pure of an under bet as you can find.
Pick: Omarion Hampton Under 63.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Jaguars vs. Broncos
Parker Washington Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Parker Washington followed up his breakout last season with another dominant performance in Week 1 against the Browns, finishing with a 5/83/1 line on just 18 routes as the Jags rotated guys in during the second half when the game was out of hand.
Washington earned a target on 33% of his routes and posted an elite 4.61 yards per route run.
The Broncos are a big step up in competition, but that should lead to significantly more routes, and he cooked in this matchup last year (6/145/1 on 9 targets).
Pick: Parker Washington Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Commanders vs. Cowboys
Terry McLaurin Over 4.5 Receptions (+120)
By Charlie Wright
Terry McLaurin stumbled to two catches for 14 yards in Week 1. He saw just four targets. It was an ugly performance by the Commanders offense.
A matchup on the road against Philadelphia to open the season isn't ideal. The spot is much easier this week. Dallas once again looks like a vulnerable defense after getting torched by Jaxson Dart and the Giants.
While the ball didn't come his way too much against the Eagles, the usage for McLaurin was encouraging (92.1% route rate).
The new coaching staff talked in the offseason about moving him around the formation instead of keeping him on the boundaries. That came to fruition as McLaurin had a 31.4% slot rate — that number was under 15% last season.
McLaurin's aDOT was just 5.3 yards in Week 1. It was 13.6 last season.
This is a different role for McLaurin, and it’s one that should lead to easier completions.
Pick: Terry McLaurin Over 4.5 Receptions (+120)
Dolphins vs. 49ers
Malik Washington Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
By Brit Devine
I think this line is way too low after seeing Malik Washington's Week 1 usage rate.
Washington led the Dolphins in routes, air yards, and targets last week, while also having an average depth of target (aDOT) of 16 yards.
The aDOT is particularly of note — last season, he was used as a gadget player with an aDOT of just 5.2 yards.
In Week 1, he split time both out wide and in the slot, and he ran a full route tree, which means he has been elevated to a full-time role under the new Miami coaching staff.
Washington blew past this line in Week 1 on just three receptions (on 8 targets), and the books simply have not adjusted enough to him not being the short-area gadget player he was last season.
He clearly has a prominent full-time role in this Miami offense.
