Bills-Dolphins Betting Preview: Can You Count on Buffalo’s Defense to Get Another Win?

Betting odds: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins 

• Spread: Dolphins -3.5 
• Over/Under: 40
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS

Betting market: Buffalo a trendy dog, who woulda thunk it? With 55% of bets, Buffalo is getting a hardy share of public love (see the updated odds here).

There are even some sharp bettors included in there, as multiple bet signals have helped them move from +6 to +3.5. — Mark Gallant

Weather report: Warm and breezy weather will make this December game at the Hard Rock feel like September. Dating back to 2003, we’ve tracked just 10 games in December with temperatures of at least 80 degrees, with the record being 83.

This game is forecasted to average between 83 and 84 degrees, so it could end up breaking the record. — Gallant

Trends to know: You probably aren’t watching this game unless you're betting on it. One tip: follow the tickets. Since 2003, in games featuring division opponents with losing records it has been profitable to follow the crowd, according to Bet Labs:

• Teams getting more than 50% of bets: 138-123-8 (53%) against the spread
• 60% or more of bets: 96-78-7 (55%) ATS
• 70% or more of bets: 44-29-3 (60%) ATS — John Ewing

Ryan Tannehill returned for the Dolphins after missing five games last week against the Colts. Miami lost the game straight up, but covered the lofty nine-point spread.

With Tannehill at quarterback, the Dolphins have struggled against the spread vs. AFC East opponents, but are actually five games over .500 ATS vs. non-divisional opponents.

• vs. AFC East: 10-18-1 ATS (35.7%, -8.4 units)
• vs. Non-Divisional Opp: 29-24-1 ATS (54.7%, +4.4 units) — Evan Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Bills pass coverage vs. Dolphins passing offense

The Bills pass defense has been stellar, allowing just 6.4 yards per attempt and a league-low 193.7 passing yards per game. As a result, they boast the league’s best pass defense in pass DVOA.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins rank 24th in pass DVOA on offense, making them one of the least efficient passing offenses in the league. The Dolphins have an implied team total of just 22 points as it’s dropped nearly 1.5 points since the line opened. — Justin Bailey

Which team is healthier? Bills

The Bills could welcome back tight end Charles Clay (hamstring), but could be without guard John Miller (oblique). The defense will be at 100% with the potential exception of cornerback Taron Johnson (shoulder).

The Dolphins aren’t nearly as well off, as the offensive line alone is dealing with injuries to right tackle Ja’Waun James (knee), left guard Ted Larsen (neck), center Travis Swanson (ankle) and left tackle Laremy Tunsil (knee).

Additional concerns on the offensive side of the ball include running back Kenyan Drake (shoulder), tight end A.J. Derby (foot, knee) as well as wide receivers Danny Amendola (knee) and DeVante Parker (shoulder).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: LeSean McCoy’s 22.5 touches per game rank sixth in the league among running backs in the past three weeks, and he’s taking on mediocre Dolphins defense, which ranks 18th in rush DVOA.

While McCoy isn’t a cash-game play, he’s a viable tournament option if he continues to see the number of touches that he’s getting. His 23.3-point projected ceiling and minimal ownership projection gives him a 99% Leverage Rating on DraftKings. — Bailey

Bet to watch: Dolphins -3.5

From a pure value standpoint, the play here has to be the Dolphins. The Bills have won two in a row, while the Dolphins have dropped two straight. The difference?

Buffalo beat Jacksonville and the Jets, and the Dolphins lost to the Colts and Packers. Three weeks ago, this line is close to a touchdown if not more and Tannehill returning last week for Miami is a nice boost — he looked really good in the loss against a solid  (2 TD, 0 INT, 68% completion percentage).

The Dolphins dropped from a 6-point favorite down to just a 3.5-point favorite, and even though the Bills boast one of the most impressive defenses according to DVOA (second in overall defense, first in pass defense), one category allows me to sleep sound: Buffalo's defense ranks last in the NFL in variance according to DVOA, which is basically measures how consistent a team is from game-to-game.

The Bills have won two straight, allowing 4.6 yards per attempt against Blake Bortles and Josh McCown. Tannehill isn't Dan Marino, but I think he takes Buffalo back to its first nine-week yards per attempt total of 6.8 on defense.

When it comes to variance and consistency, this is a trend I think comes to an end on Sunday:

In terms of motivation, I think Miami is in a prime spot returning home after consecutive losses on the road, especially since Tannehill has a start under his belt after the injury.

The Bills are coming off consecutive wins as underdogs, including a hard-fought game against the physical Jaguars. The Dolphins are the play for me. — Abrams

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.