The Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals kickstart the NFL preseason in tonight's Hall of Fame Game. Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, Ohio. The HOF Game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Panthers are -120 favorites on the moneyline and -1.5 on the spread. The Cardinals are +104 underdogs and +1.5 on the spread. The over/under is 35.5 points.
Let's get into my Panthers vs Cardinals prediction and Hall of Fame Game preview.
My Panthers vs Cardinals Prediction
- Panthers vs Cardinals pick: Under 35.5
My Panthers vs Cardinals best bet is on the under. As always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Panthers vs Cardinals Odds
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 35.5 -106o / -114u | -120 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 35.5 -106o / -114u | +104 |
Koerner on the NFL Preseason
After a several month break since the Super Bowl in February, NFL betting is finally back.
I’ve stayed busy since then, logging 438 official bets in the Action app across college basketball, NBA, MLB, PGA, WNBA, the World Cup, and more. But as much as I enjoy betting those sports, nothing beats having football back.
A lot of people scoff at the idea of betting the NFL preseason, but it’s honestly become one of my favorite things to handicap. Over the last five preseasons I’ve gone 68-43 (61.2%), and while there is far more uncertainty than the regular season, that’s also what creates opportunity.
Nothing is ever a lock in the preseason. Coaches change plans on the fly, quarterback rotations don’t always go exactly as expected, and one player can end up getting three times as many snaps as anyone anticipated. You have to embrace that uncertainty.
Personally, I’d be watching these games even if I wasn’t betting them. This is our first chance to see the rookie class in NFL action, evaluate roster battles, and start shaping opinions that will carry into both fantasy football and betting. To me, those things all go hand in hand.
If you pay close enough attention, there are edges to be found. Not because preseason is easy, but because most people don’t want to put in the work. I’ve spent years building preseason quarterback ratings, tracking coaching tendencies, and trying to project quarterback rotations before sportsbooks fully account for them.
Quarterback rotations are really the foundation of how I handicap preseason games.
Unlike the regular season, where one quarterback usually plays the entire game if healthy, preseason games often feature two, three, or even four quarterbacks splitting snaps. Since quarterback is by far the most valuable position on the field, I spend a lot of time projecting how each team will divide those snaps while assigning a rough point spread value to every quarterback expected to play.
I almost treat each quarter as its own game. That’s why you’ll often see me betting first halves, quarters, or even live markets more aggressively during the preseason. Sometimes that’s where the biggest edges exist.
One final disclaimer before we jump in: these are still projections.
Some quarterback rotations are fairly easy to project because coaches tell us exactly what they’re planning or they’ve established clear preseason tendencies over the years. Others are complete guesses. We also have plenty of rookie and practice squad quarterbacks with almost no NFL data to work with, so their ratings can change dramatically after just one preseason appearance.
That’s part of the fun.
Now let’s get to the game.
Panthers vs Cardinals Hall of Fame Game Preview
When the Panthers Have the Ball
One of the biggest edges in preseason betting comes from understanding coaching philosophy. The head coach decides who plays, how long they play, and, just as importantly, how much they actually care about winning games that don’t count.
Panthers head coach Dave Canales has already established himself as someone who doesn’t put much emphasis on preseason results. His teams are 0-6 against the spread (ATS) through his first two preseasons, while the under has gone 4-2. He’s an offensive-minded head coach, but Carolina hasn’t exactly been trying to light up the scoreboard in August.
That approach makes even more sense this year.
The Panthers are coming off a playoff appearance, have an extra preseason game thanks to the Hall of Fame Game, and have already been hit hard by injuries during camp.
Starting linebacker Nic Scourton suffered a torn ACL and third-round rookie receiver Chris Brazzell suffered a torn LCL and is out for the season. Ja'Tavion Sanders and Xavier Legette have also picked up injuries in camp. On top of that, offensive tackles Taylor Moton and Ikem Ekwonu aren’t expected to be ready for Week 1.
If you’re Carolina, the priority Thursday night probably isn’t proving anything — it’s simply getting through the game without adding to that injury list.
My expectation is we see very few Panther starters, if any. Maybe some second-string players for the opening quarter before the third-stringers and roster bubble players take over for most of the night.
Kenny Pickett has already been announced as the starter with Bryce Young sitting this one out.
Interestingly, Carolina’s quarterback room got a little thinner a couple weeks ago when Will Grier announced his retirement before immediately joining the Cowboys coaching staff. Grier was quietly one of the better preseason quarterbacks over the last few years.
Over the last three preseasons, I’ve built an objective quarterback rating using only preseason data that combines several efficiency metrics to summarize how well each quarterback has actually played in preseason games.
It’s not meant to be predictive or say who the better NFL quarterback is. It’s simply a way to objectively compare how quarterbacks have performed in this unique environment. Out of the 89 quarterbacks who qualified over that span, Grier ranked 34th, so losing him isn’t insignificant.
Fortunately for Carolina, Pickett has been one of the best preseason quarterbacks in recent years.
Using those same objective preseason ratings, Pickett ranks 7th out of those 89 quarterbacks. Despite his disappointing regular season career, he’s completed 77% of his preseason passes with a sparkling 6:0 TD:INT ratio. He’s simply been incredibly efficient whenever he’s gotten preseason opportunities.
I only expect Pickett to play around the first quarter, but while he’s on the field I think Carolina has the quarterback edge. Having the most accomplished preseason quarterback in this game under center for the opening quarter also raises the offensive expectation a bit compared to a typical Hall of Fame Game.
Once Pickett exits, I expect Haynes King to handle the rest of the night.
King signed with Carolina as an undrafted free agent out of Georgia Tech. One thing that jumped out to me immediately is that he’s already 25 years old and actually older than Bryce Young, despite the latter entering his fourth NFL season.
King isn’t the most polished passer and his accuracy can come and go, but he has legitimate rushing upside — that’s something I always pay attention to during the preseason.
Quarterbacks who can scramble often outperform expectations because they can overcome shaky offensive line play — and inexperienced receivers — simply by taking off and picking up first downs with their legs. They don’t need perfect timing or chemistry with their receivers to sustain drives.
I think that advantage is strongest early in games. I remember Riley Leonard catching a defense completely off guard last preseason by scrambling over and over (did they not watch the National Championship a few months earlier?!). Once the defense adjusted and started assigning a spy, those easy rushing lanes started disappearing.
We could see something similar with King tonight.
His legs could provide a nice spark early, but if he ends up playing the final three quarters, Arizona will have plenty of time, including halftime, to adjust once it realizes how willing King is to tuck it and run.
Overall, I think Carolina has a slight first-half edge with Pickett being the most accomplished preseason quarterback in this game and King’s mobility potentially creating a few extra first downs before Arizona settles in. The market generally reflects that, with Carolina sitting as a slight favorite.
Koerner's Hall of Fame Game Quarterback Chart
When the Cardinals Have the Ball
The Cardinals enter this game in a much different situation with Mike LaFleur making his NFL debut as a head coach.
Part of me initially thought that would make him more motivated to establish a winning culture right away. But the more I dug into it, the more I came back to where he spent the last several years — offensive coordinator of the Rams under … Sean McVay.
Nobody treats the preseason more casually than McVay. There have been Rams preseason games over the last few seasons where he’s not even on the sideline coaching, but in the broadcast booth.
It’s hard not to wonder how much of that philosophy carries over.
Carson Beck has already been announced as the Cardinals' starting quarterback, which isn’t surprising. Arizona invested a third-round pick in him and he needs as many live reps as possible so the staff can determine whether he could eventually become the long-term answer at quarterback.
That likely means Gardner Minshew won’t play, leaving Beck and Kedon Slovis to split the workload.
Beck has reportedly put together a strong week of practice, but LaFleur made it very clear where his priorities are.
"We’re not overly game planning," LaFleur said in a Tuesday press conference. "You go into this game with plays that, no matter what they bring, are going to be protected both in the run game and the pass game."
That’s fairly standard preseason coach speak, but I generally take coaches at their word unless they give me a reason not to.
To me, it sounds like Arizona is far more interested in collecting film than winning.
Since I first started writing this preview, it also sounds like Jermiyah Love isn’t expected to play, which only reinforces that thought.
If LaFleur is already holding out the No. 3 overall pick in the Hall of Fame Game, that certainly feels much more like the McVay approach than the “let’s establish a winning culture” approach I originally considered.
That’s another small point in favor of the under.
As for the quarterbacks, I think Beck plays roughly the first half. If the Cardinals want another drive or two after halftime, I wouldn’t be surprised, but I think the most likely outcome is Beck handles the first half before Slovis finishes things off.
Panthers vs Cardinals Prediction, Betting Analysis
Overall, I think both the spread and total are pretty close to where they should be, and I agree with Carolina being a slight favorite.
The Hall of Fame Game has historically been lower scoring than the rest of the preseason, although it has gone over the total in each of the last four years (38, 37, 38 and 41 points). That sounds concerning until you dig a little deeper.
Three of those four games would’ve stayed under this number if just one additional field goal had been missed. Both Chad Ryland and Ryan Fitzgerald were below-average kickers last season, especially Ryland, who connected on just 76% of his field goals.
With a total this low, one missed kick can absolutely decide the outcome — but what really sold me on the under wasn’t any individual player. It was the fact that every quarterback expected to play tonight points toward the exact same type of game.
None of these guys are gunslingers looking to attack downfield every series.
They’re all much more comfortable taking what’s available underneath, playing within structure, and avoiding putting the football in harm’s way.
That’s exactly what under bettors want.
Kenny Pickett posted just a 5.6 average depth of target (aDOT) during his last preseason action (in 2024), the 6th lowest among 61 qualified preseason quarterbacks. Even more impressive, he didn’t record a single turnover-worthy play across 54 dropbacks.
Haynes King ranked 4th lowest among 105 qualified FBS quarterbacks with a 7.0 aDOT last season while posting the lowest turnover-worthy play rate in the entire country (0.8%).
Carson Beck wasn’t much different. He finished with the 6th-lowest aDOT among those same 105 quarterbacks while also ranking 13th in avoiding turnover-worthy throws.
Kedon Slovis posted the 7th-lowest preseason aDOT among 80 qualified quarterbacks last year while also finishing near the top of the league in avoiding turnover-worthy plays.
So instead of getting one conservative quarterback, we could realistically get four straight quarters of quarterbacks whose natural tendencies all point toward shorter throws, risk-averse decisions, and longer drives that keep the clock moving.
That’s exactly the environment I’m looking for when betting an under.
Add in what should be two fairly run-heavy game plans, and you have even more reasons for the clock to keep moving. We don’t mind checkdowns that pick up five yards and keep the chains moving. We don’t mind handoffs on early downs. What we don’t want are deep shots that flip field position in one play or force high-variance turnovers.
One little nugget I like is Arizona punter Blake Gillikin. He averaged an NFL-best 51.7 yards per punt last season and can absolutely boom it.
A punter consistently flipping field position is another small edge that pushes games toward lower scoring, field-position battles.
Lastly, Craig Wrolstad is the head referee for this game — the under is 5-2 in his preseason games.
Does that guarantee the under?
Of course not.
I’ve been betting for over 30 years and have seen just about every bad beat imaginable.
A muffed punt, busted coverage, pick-six, or blown assignment could completely blow up this handicap despite the game following the exact script I dreamed about — but that’s preseason football. It’s chaotic. It’s volatile. It’s definitely not for the faint of heart.
But it’s also one of my favorite times of the football calendar, and with the regular season only a month away, I’m just happy to have football back.
Now let’s root for a nice, old fashioned under for tonight's Hall of Fame Game.
Pick: Under 35.5
