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The Chicago Bears (3-2) and Atlanta Falcons (2-3) will face off in Week 6 of the NFL season this afternoon. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Bears are 1.5-point favorites over the Falcons on the spread, with the over/under set at 50.5 total points. Chicago is a -122 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Atlanta is a +104 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Bears vs Falcons predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, October 18.
Bears vs Falcons Prediction
- Bears vs Falcons pick: Falcons Moneyline (+104)
My Bears vs. Falcons best bet is Atlanta moneyline (+104), with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Bears vs Falcons Odds
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | -122 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | +104 |
- Bears vs Falcons spread: Bears -1.5, Falcons +1.5
- Bears vs Falcons total: over/under 50.5
- Bears vs Falcons moneyline: Bears -122, Falcons +104
Bears vs Falcons NFL Week 6 Preview
Chicago Bears Betting Preview: Inflated Defensive Metrics
The Bears have been fielding horrendous defense all season, and they were exposed again by the Packers last week.
Prior to their latest outing, Chicago's defensive metrics were inflated by a soft schedule of broken offenses.
The Bears played the Jets in a game where New York barely had the ball due to offensive injuries, the downtrotten remains of the Eagles, the Vikings in a storm, and the Panthers in Week 1 (when they surrendered 37 points).
To make matters worse entering today's game, Chicago's defense is dealing with cluster injuries. Montez Sweat is suspended, and Dayo Odeyingbo is likely out.
Without their two starting defensive ends, how exactly are the Bears going to get any pressure?
On top of that, Bears running backs Kyle Monangai (out) and D'Andre Swift are also banged up, making their offense mostly one-dimensional.
Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview: Penix the X-Factor
The Falcons are currently sitting as 1.5-point home underdogs here, and quite frankly, I think they should close to being priced as favorites.
Michael Penix Jr. is expected to play after exiting Sunday Night Football with a rib injury. With Chicago missing its top edge rushers, he should mostly be kept clean in the pocket. The disparity between Penix when pressured versus when he has a clean pocket is massive.
Atlanta's offensive game plan should be very simple: just hand the ball to Bijan Robinson against a Bears defense that can't stop the run.
Defensively, Atlanta will get the benefit of facing a hobbled Chicago rushing attack and an offense that has struggled to generate big plays the last two weeks.
Bears vs Falcons Prediction, Betting Analysis
This is a coin-flip game at absolute worst, and the Bears are way too banged up in the trenches to warrant this level of respect from the market.
Without Montez Sweat and Dayo Odeyingbo, Chicago probably won't be able to generate the organic pressure necessary to disrupt Michael Penix Jr., nor can they stop Bijan Robinson on the ground.
Give me the Falcons moneyline as home underdogs in this spot.
Note: In the event that Caleb Williams returns for this game, my pick remains the same. I don’t think Williams will be fully mobile and the Falcons are are apt at generating pressure.
Pick: Falcons Moneyline (+104)
