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The New York Jets (2-3) battle the rival New England Patriots (3-2) in NFL Week 6 today. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Patriots are 7.5-point favorites over the Jets on the spread, with the over/under set at 43.5 total points. New England is a -340 moneyline favorite to win outright, while New York is a +275 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Jets vs Patriots predictions for today's AFC East tilt.
Jets vs Patriots Prediction
- Jets vs Patriots pick: Jets +7.5 (-120)
My Jets vs. Patriots best bet is New York to cover the spread (+7.5), with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Jets vs Patriots Odds
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -120 | 43.5 -108o / -112u | +275 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -102 | 43.5 -108o / -112u | -340 |
- Jets vs Patriots spread: Jets +7.5, Patriots -7.5
- Jets vs Patriots total: over/under 43.5
- Jets vs Patriots moneyline: Jets +275, Patriots -340
Jets vs Patriots NFL Week 6 Preview
New York Jets Betting Preview: Too Many Points
The Jets enter this matchup with a structural advantage when it comes to opposing teams laying more than a touchdown against them.
New York ranks eighth in the NFL in third-down defensive efficiency and sixth in red-zone defense, meaning it consistently forces opponents to settle for field goals — and you usually need to cash in a high of touchdown opportunities to cover a spread this large.
Offensively, the Jets are still dealing with key injuries — Breece Hall, Adonai Mitchell, and Kenyon Sadiq are likely out — but they are getting Mason Taylor back. Hall's backup, Braelon Allen, also impressed against the Browns last week, rushing for 116 yards and a touchdown.
Despite the missing pieces, New York's defense should be good enough to keep this game within a touchdown.
New England Patriots Betting Preview: Is Drake Maye Back?
The Patriots are coming off a massive pair of wins after upsetting the Bills 29-26, and then dominating the Raiders 45-17 — but this is a classic spot to fade them.
Historically, fading teams coming off huge scoring outputs hits at a 45% lifetime rate.
Drake Maye is coming off a 99th-percentile performance, which is nearly impossible for any QB to replicate. The resurgent Maye was 26-for-34 passing against the Raiders, racking up 374 yards and four touchdowns with no turnovers. He added 25 rushing yards and a touchdown.
New England's underlying metrics, however, are concerning: the offense ranks 20th on third down and 18th in the red zone. With TreVeyon Henderson ruled out, the Patriots' rushing attack plummets to 27th in success rate and 23rd in EPA and heavily reliant on Rhamondre Stevenson.
Jets vs Patriots Prediction, Betting Analysis
I am taking the Jets to cover. We are getting the hook on a critical key number against a New England team primed for regression.
The Patriots will likely have a tough time sustaining drives on the ground without TreVeyon Henderson, and Drake Maye could struggle against a Jets defense that excels on third downs.
Expect New York to win some key moments throughout this game and cover the spread in this rivalry game.
Pick: Jets +7.5 (-120)
Editor's Note: This pick was made before reports of the Patriots likely activating WR A.J. Brown.
Jets vs Patriots Betting Trends
Jets Trends
- The Jets are 0-6 ATS against the AFC East since the start of last season, failing to cover by 13.1 PPG.
Patriots Trends
- Mike Vrabel is 7-1 straight up against the AFC East over the last four seasons
- As a 3+ point favorite, Drake Maye is 15-0 SU as a starting QB, best mark (min 10 gms) in Super Bowl era.
For more Week 6 trends, check out my NFL Betting Primer, which covers every single game.
