The Chicago Bears (6-3) and Minnesota Vikings (4-5) face off in Week 11 on Sunday, Nov. 16. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minn. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Vikings are 3-point favorites over the Bears on the spread (Vikings -3), with the over/under set at 48.5 total points. Minnesota is a -165 moneyline favorite to win outright while Chicago is +140 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Week 11 preview and Bears vs Vikings prediction for today's game.
Bears vs Vikings Prediction
- Bears vs Vikings pick: Vikings -3 (-110)
My Bears vs Vikings best bet is on Minnesota to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Bears vs Vikings Odds
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -165 |
Bears vs Vikings NFL Week 11 Preview
The Bears have had four crazy comeback wins this season — they are 6-3, but they could easily be 3-6.
Chicago has benefited from turnover luck on defense, currently with a +14 differential on the season. The Bears have eight fumbles, but they have only lost two of them. Their opponents, meanwhile, have nine fumbles against them and Chicago recovered seven of them.
If you remove turnovers, this Bears defense has struggled — especially without cornerbacks Kyler Gordon and Jaylon Johnson — currently ranked 30th in EPA per play.
They're basically right at the same level as the Bengals and Cowboys, who are historically bad. The Bears are 31st in dropback EPA.
If you remove turnovers on early downs, they are dead last in the league in early down EPA, which is more predictive, and worse than the Bengals and Cowboys in that department.
Quarterback Caleb Williams has improved from his disappointing rookie season. However, he's faced the Giants, Saints, Cowboys, Raiders, Commanders and Bengals — those are six of the worst defenses in the league, and those are basically the Bears’ wins this year.
They have a 35% strength of schedule, meaning opponents with a 35% winning percentage.
According to Evan Abrams, the Bears have won three of their last four games when trailing entering the fourth quarter, and this season they are 3-2 straight up (SU) when trailing after the third and 3-1 SU when leading after the third.
I know Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy has been bad. Do I love laying points with him? No. But, even this Minnesota offense will be able to do whatever it wants.
The Vikings should be able to run the ball against Chicago. Plus, the Bears don't have anyone to cover the Vikings' receivers — and they have some good ones in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson.
Chicago’s run game has been great as head coach Ben Johnson has been cooking over the last month and a half.
But again, look at who they've played. And don't overlook that the Vikings’ run defense has been on an upswing since they got healthy and recovered players like Blake Cashman and Andrew Van Ginkel.
Bears vs Vikings Prediction, Betting Analysis
Looking over the past two weeks, the Vikings went to Detroit and held the Lions to 3.3 yards per carry, and then they held the Ravens to 4.2 yards per carry on 36 carries. Their run defense is much better than the metrics suggest.
Meanwhile, Caleb Williams has been bailing out of the pocket and trying to make things happen. He has not been efficient, but is hitting a lot of explosive plays.
However, a lot of that has come against the easiest schedule of opposing defenses of any quarterback this year. There will likely be too many negative plays against Brian Flores' defense.
The Vikings lead the league in pressure rate overall and when not blitzing.
According to Evan Abrams, when Williams gets sacked two times or fewer, the Bears are 8-5 SU over the last two seasons. When he gets sacked 3+ times, they are 3-10 SU.
On the defensive side of the ball for Minnesota, linebacker Jonathan Greenard might be able to play. Fullback C.J. Ham came back recently. They could get Ryan Kelly back at center. The rest of the team is pretty healthy.
Pick: Vikings -3 (-110)
Spread
My Vikings vs Bears betting prediction is on Minnesota to cover the spread at -3.
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm not betting the total in this game.
