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Chiefs Getting Near-Record Support as Underdog vs. Rams

Nov 19, 2018 10:05 PM EST
  • The Kansas City Chiefs are receiving 77% of spread bets for their Monday Night Football matchup against the Los Angeles Rams (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.)
  • Given the level of support, a number of sportsbooks have moved their line from +3.5 to +3.
  • An underdog has never received more than 80% of spread bets.

It’s almost the big night for the big game. Let’s just hope it’s not a dud.

The Chiefs-Rams matchup isn’t just great on paper for the average fan, it has some terrific storylines in the gambling world, too.

We covered the historic over/under and the line change after it was moved from Mexico City to Los Angeles, but we have yet to cover just how freaking popular the Chiefs are among bettors.

The Chiefs were pretty popular for a pooch early in the week, getting about two-thirds of spread bets at +2.5. Then the game was taken off the board, bets were refunded and the percentages were wiped clean. But since reopening following the relocation, the Chiefs have been even more popular.

The Chiefs are getting 77% of spread bets as of writing (see live data here). This is an outlandishly high number for an underdog.

Our Bet Labs database has betting data on 3,934 regular-season dogs. Only 71 of those dogs — that’s 1.8% — have received at least 70% of spread bets. Only 21 (0.5%) have reached the 75% mark.

The record for a dog is 80%, which I don’t expect to be broken here. Regardless, the Chiefs will be among the trendiest NFL dogs to ever walk the Earth.

Kansas City is receiving nearly the same share in terms of money percentages, and given the lopsided support, the line has moved in the Chiefs’ favor.

The Rams reopened as 4-point favorites at Pinnacle and quickly moved to -3.5 after the location change, then the rest of the market followed suit. The line remains at 3.5 with heavy juice on the Chiefs at Pinnacle, but has fallen to the key number of three at BookMaker/CRIS, Bovada and a number of large Vegas books including Westgate and William Hill.

Remember: The line was 2.5 in Mexico City. Generally speaking, home-field advantage is worth two to three points, but apparently the market believes it’s hardly worth jack in this game.

One reason why bettors might be siding with K.C. over L.A. is because of each team’s record against the spread. Though both boast an impressive 9-1 record straight-up, the Chiefs are 8-2 ATS compared to the Rams at only 4-6. That Rams number is historically low for such a great team.

So … at this point, you’re likely wondering how these trendy dogs fared? Those with 70% or more are a respectable 36-33-2 ATS, while those with 75% or more are 11-10. Nothing really to bank on for either side.

Interestingly enough, every single one of the 71 popular dogs have been on the road.

Credit:

Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tyreek Hill, Kareem Hunt

Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money

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44
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45
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38
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44
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44.5
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47
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36
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36
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44.5
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44.5
-1
52.5
-3
54
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54
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50.5

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