Chiefs vs 49ers Player Props: Deebo Samuel, Patrick Mahomes, Nick Bosa, Dre Greenlaw, Noah Gray
Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Deebo Samuel.
Chiefs vs 49ers Player Props: Deebo Samuel, Patrick Mahomes, Nick Bosa, Dre Greenlaw, Noah Gray
In the table below, you'll find Sam Farley's Chiefs vs 49ers player props for the 2024 Super Bowl. Click on any player or team logo to navigate these Super Bowl player props.
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Chiefs vs. 49ers
One of my favorite parts of the Super Bowl prop hunt is finding angles on the less well-known players, and this pick can be firmly filed under that category. We’re backing over 10.5 receiving yards for Chiefs TE Noah Gray.
I find the Travis Kelce line a little hard to pick a side on, but I am smashing the over on Gray. He’s hit this mark in 12-of-19 games this season.
Most importantly, he’s hit in two of his last three and that would have likely been three of three if he caught more than 40% of his targets against the Ravens.
Gray isn’t a big name, but he’s getting a little bit of run so we can trust him to get at least 11 yards.
Pick: Noah Gray Over receiving 10.5 yards (-115)
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I always try to base every prop I have in numbers, with data having a stronger basis than hunch, but it’s really hard to tell you to back Deebo Samuel over 15.5 rushing yards when he’s only exceeded that in 5-of-18 games this season.
However, this is entirely based on who the Niners are playing.
The Chiefs defense is designed to bend but not break against the run. They’ve given up an average of 113 rushing yards per game in the playoffs, which is consistent with what they allowed in the regular season (113.2). It's undoubtedly the weakest part of their defense.
The Niners will look to exploit this with Christian McCaffrey, but Kyle Shanahan will surely look to get Samuel involved, too. He’s scored nearly as many rushing TDs (five) as receiving TDs (seven) this season, and Shanahan could use his dynamism to cause real headaches for the Chiefs.
Pick: Deebo Samuel Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
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This hasn’t been Nick Bosa’s best season since turning pro as his numbers have dropped this year. He had just 10.5 sacks in the regular season; he posted 18.5 and 15.5 in his previous two campaigns. However, he’s a big-time player and he plays well when it matters. We saw him sack Jared Goff twice in the NFC Championship Game.
The Chiefs allowed the second-fewest sacks in the regular season (28), but the injury to left guard Joe Thuney will likely have some sort of negative impact. The 49ers have a fearsome front and I see Bosa sacking Mahomes at least once.
Pick: Nick Bosa Over 0.25 Sacks (-110)
This is my favorite player prop of the Super Bowl. You’re getting a massive +410 on a Mahomes touchdown and it looks like value to me.
Through 17 playoff games, he’s scored five rushing touchdowns and has shown us that in big games he’s more than willing to use his legs to extend plays and get in the end zone.
The negatives are that he hasn’t scored a rushing TD all season and his last one in the playoffs was two years ago in the AFC Championship game, but it’s coming.
He’s has six rushing attempts in each of the last two games, and if he feels this game is getting away from the Chiefs, he will try to put the team on his back.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Anytime TD (+460)
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Before we get into the why, I need to state that this is +50000 for a reason. As such, this is a very low-stakes wager. Now that’s out of the way, let’s discuss why I think Dre Greenlaw is a great outsider pick for Super Bowl MVP.
First, we need to talk about the history of this award. It is generally a quarterback award — across the last decade, we’ve seen it won by a QB on six occasions. The other four winners have been split equally between wide receivers and linebackers, with Malcolm Smith and Von Miller both winners.
Now, if you think the Niners will win the Super Bowl, as I do, then that leads us to look at prospective winners. Christian McCaffrey is one option, but he’d need a monster performance with likely no receiving touchdowns to win it.
Then there’s the 49ers’ favorite, Brock Purdy. There’s so much narrative and discussion around Purdy and his ability that you have to question if that will impact the voting, especially with 20% coming from fans. If Purdy doesn’t have a great game in terms of his own stats then it’s easy to see the game manager discourse again, meaning the award could go elsewhere, particularly if it’s a great defensive performance that gets the Niners over the line.
When it comes to defense, there’s the obvious choice in Nick Bosa, but at over five times the odds I’d take Greenlaw. Let’s not forget that just three weeks ago against the Packers he had eight tackles, two picks and two passes defended in a performance that almost certainly would have won him the MVP award had that been the Super Bowl.
At +50000 I think there are far worse dart throws to chuck $2 on.
Pick: Dre Greenlaw Super Bowl MVP (+5000)
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