Our Experts’ Chiefs vs. Chargers Betting Picks for Monday Night Football in Mexico City

Chiefs vs. Chargers Odds & Betting Picks

• Odds: Chiefs -5
• Over/Under: 53
• Location: Mexico City
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN

Odds as of noon ET on Monday.

Monday Night Football brings us an AFC West showdown in Mexico City between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers.

It's no surprise that the public is all over Patrick Mahomes and Co. as 5-point favorites, with more than 65% of tickets and money backing them to cover. But is that the best betting value for this game?

Our staff reveals how they're betting this matchup, featuring an over/under pick and Sean Koerner's favorite player prop based on his projections.

Monday Night Football Picks

Matthew Freedman: Under 53

Both teams can score points, but over the past six weeks, the Chiefs have four losses that highlight their vulnerability against the run. They're No. 31 in defensive run success rate (55%). I imagine that the Chargers will give a lot of carries to Melvin Gordon III in order to control the ball and keep the Chiefs offense on the sideline.

And when the Chiefs have the ball, they might struggle more than usual. Their offensive strength is the passing game, but as I mention in my Week 11 WR/CB piece, wide receiver Tyreek Hill has a tough matchup this week. In the slot, he will face All-Pro cornerback Desmond King II, and when Hill splits out wide he will frequently face Casey Hayward Jr.

With the Chargers slowing down the game on offense and providing just enough resistance on defense, I like the under to 52 points.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Sean Koerner: Mike Williams Under 4 Receptions (+100)

Since the Chargers have welcomed both Hunter Henry and Melvin Gordon back in Week 6, Williams has averaged 5.8 targets, 3.4 receptions and 71 yards per game. I expect him to have a similar role tonight and have him projected just short of 3.5 receptions.

This prop only "losses" if he snags five or more catches — he's done that in only two of nine games this season — and a push if he gets exactly four.

Here's my exact breakdown of his projected reception distribution tonight:

After removing push chances, there's a 68.6% chance of a win vs. 31.4% a loss.