The Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys face off Thursday on Thanksgiving on November 27. Kickoff from AT&T Stadium is set for 4:30 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast live on CBS and Paramount+.
Our player props for Chiefs vs Cowboys player props target Javonte Williams and Patrick Mahomes.
Let's dive into our Chiefs vs Cowboys player props for NFL Thanksgiving.
Chiefs vs Cowboys Player Props
- Javonte Williams Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts (+106; DraftKings)
- Javonte Williams SGP (+407; FanDuel)
- Patrick Mahomes Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110, bet365)
Chiefs vs Cowboys Prop Picks, Preview
Javonte Williams Under 16.5 Rush Attempts (+106)
By: Nick Giffen
In the Cowboys' five wins and the tie, running back Javonte Williams has averaged 19.2 rush attempts per game, with a floor of 16. In the five losses, he averaged 13.2 attempts with a max of 15.
Williams averages 14.6 attempts with a median of 14.5 carries in the eight regulation games that weren't blowout wins.
The figure drops to 18 per game and a floor of 14 if we remove the overtime games. Williams cleared 17.5 in those eight games and cleared 16.5 twice.
The Cowboys currently stand as the underdogs against the Chiefs, which shouldn't come as a surprise.
Currently, Kansas City is third in time of possession. If Patrick Mahomes can get one or two of those usual 8-10 minute drives, that can instantly kill rushing opportunities.
Don't be mistaken, the Cowboys defense has gotten infinitely better since acquiring Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson. But Williams admitted that he's a little banged up from Sunday night's game against the Eagles.
So, the Chiefs would be incentivized to draw out drives rather than create explosive plays. If they do, that spells trouble for Javonte Williams' attempts.
Pick: Javonte Williams Under 16.5 Rush Attempts (+106; DraftKings)
Editor's Note: This quickslip is for 15.5 Rush Attempts. Nick's initial recommendation was 16.5
Javonte Williams SGP (+407)
By: Billy Ward
- Javonte Williams 1Q Rushing Yards Over 18.5
- Javonte Williams Rushing Yards Under 68.5
There’s no real coin-flip edge in the Cowboys-Chiefs game. Kansas City has deferred on 100% of their kickoffs, while the Cowboys have received the first possession on just one of five, though it was its most recent coin-flip win.
That makes Dallas slightly more likely to start with the ball, though not enough to bet a prop on that angle alone. However, it’s a slight boost to this SGP I’ve cooked up, even if it’s not the deciding factor.
As Nick pointed out, Javonte Williams is one of the most game-script-dependent backs in the league, with his carries falling off massively in games the Cowboys lose.
However, that game script is far less of a factor early in games, where the worst theoretical outcome for the first Cowboys drive is a seven-point deficit, but the likeliest outcome is closer than that.
However, the longer this game goes, the more pass-heavy Dallas is likely to be.
Therefore, I’m pairing the over on Javonte Williams’ first-quarter rushing yards with the under on his full game total.
While those two things are inherently negatively correlated, we’re getting a solid price on them. If Kansas City pulls away throughout the game and forces Dallas to abandon the ground game – as somewhat expected – we could have the perfect setup for this prop.
Pick: Javonte Williams SGP (+407; FanDuel)
Patrick Mahomes Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
By: Kyle Murray
This number looks great, as Mahomes is averaging 28.8 rushing yards per game this season and has 28+ rushing yards in four of his last six games.
Mahomes gets a good matchup here, as Dallas has allowed the most rushing attempts per game to QBs and the third-most rushing yards.
Kansas City has also remained extremely pass-heavy this season, as it has the highest pass rate over expectation in the NFL, which should continue to lead to scramble chances for Mahomes.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110; bet365)
Cowboys vs Chiefs Prop Bets
- Javonte Williams Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts (+106; DraftKings)
- Javonte Williams SGP (+407; FanDuel)
- Patrick Mahomes Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-110, bet365)
