Chiefs vs. Ravens AFC Championship Game Odds: How, Why Lines Are Moving

Chiefs vs. Ravens AFC Championship Game Odds

Curiously, despite being public darlings, this line has jutted away from the Chiefs since open on Sunday.

It's a far cry from the Chiefs of years past, when the team had legitimate skill position talent and a Hall of Fame tight end at the peak of his powers. That team is long gone — one with the same quarterback, yes, but buoyed almost entirely by its defense — and the sharps have capitalized on their opponent, a team that finished No. 5 of all-time in regular season DVOA.

It hadn't always been that way, though. There had been initial movement on Monday toward the Chiefs, with the Ravens clocking in at a market-best price of -155 on Monday afternoon. But sharps hammered Baltimore at that number, sending this moneyline number as far as -195.

The spread, meanwhile, is still -3.5, its opening price. The price dangled toward Ravens -3 momentarily before creasing back to its opening price on account of the aforementioned sharp action.

Most of the public action won't participate until the weekend, which may include a litany of retail money on Kansas City to win outright.

"If you look at which teams get bet the most, the Chiefs are one of the top teams every single year so that'll be no surprise when bets roll in on Kansas City," said DraftKings head of trading Johnny Avello.

Even so, Avello said they're planning on taking that lopsided action and, effectively, betting on the Ravens should that situation arise. That's on account of a few factors — most of important of which is simple risk management. The Chiefs winning the AFC was their best result heading into the playoffs, and that hasn't changed.

For what it's worth, Mahomes has a far better record ATS when the public doesn't believe in him. He's 14-7 ATS when he's not the public side and 45-42-3 ATS when the public is backing him.

DraftKings has already profited off Super Bowl futures with the Rams (their biggest liability in the NFC), Browns (biggest AFC liability) and Bills out of the picture.

At PointsBet, the Chiefs winning are a decidedly worse outcome, with a drastic difference in ML and spread bets on KC to win, trader Will Radice told the Action Network.

"We also have a small liability on the over at 44.5, which is a little surprising considering the Ravens defense lets up the last points in the league," Radice said. "Bettors are hoping for a high scoring showdown from two MVP QBs in Jackson and Mahomes."