Browns-Texans Betting Preview: Can You Trust Houston to Keep Winning?

Betting odds: Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans

• Spread: Texans -5.5
• Over/Under: 47
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS

Betting market: With eight straight wins in the bag, the Texans' hot streak is overriding Cleveland’s big road W over the Bengals last week in the eyes of the public.

Houston is getting more than 60% of spread bets. Books opened this line anywhere between -4.5 and -6.5, but mostly -6 was available at the time of writing.

There has not been essentially no professional action to hit the game, yet. — Mark Gallant

Metrics that matter: The Browns are tied with the Chicago Bears for the best turnover differential this season at +14. — Evan Abrams

Did you know? The Texans have won eight consecutive games after starting the season 0-3. Since 2003, the Browns have faced a team on at least a three-game winning 34 times and the results are not good.

In this spot, Cleveland is 3-31 straight up and 11-22-1 against the spread, per our Bet Labs data. That makes the Browns the second-least profitable team in the NFL, just ahead of the Rams. — Evan Abrams

If the Browns win on Sunday they’ll have as many victories (3) in four games since firing Hue Jackson as they did during his entire tenure with the franchise. — John Ewing

The Browns are on a winning streak, the first time Cleveland has won back-to-back games since Week 10 of the 2014 season.

The Browns won their previous two games each by double-digits, the first time that has happened since Weeks 4 and 5 in 2013. — John Ewing

Biggest mismatch:  Browns Pass Rusher Myles Garrett vs. Texans Left Tackle Julie’n Davenport

Davenport’s 47 pressures allowed are the most by any player in the league this season, according to Pro Football Focus, and he’s also allowed the most quarterback hits (11) and second-most sacks (8) — all while committing three more penalties (14) than any other offensive lineman in the NFL.

Garrett, meanwhile, ranks fifth among edge rushers in sacks (11), quarterback hits (11), and pressures (47) of his own.

Despite not having attempted more than 25 passes in any of his past six games, Watson has been sacked an appalling 3.9 times per game over that span, so I’d expect Garrett to get home at least once.

How will Bill O’Brien stop Garrett from completely ruining the game for his streaking squad? It all starts with two backs, Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue.

I’d expect a heavy dose of the Texans backs both on the ground, where Cleveland’s defense ranks 25th in rushing DVOA compared to No. 4 against the pass, and in pass protection, where Miller (fifth) and Blue (11th) have each earned top-11 grades from Pro Football Focus. — Chris Raybon

Which team is healthier? Browns

The only Browns worth monitoring this week are tight end David Njoku (knee) and center JC Tretter (ankle).

The Texans could be without slot receiver Keke Coutee (hamstring), along with cornerbacks Johnathan Joseph (ankle, knee) and Kareem Jackson (groin). DeAndre Hopkins (foot), J.J. Watt (knee) and tight end Jordan Thomas (hamstring) are fully expected to suit up Sunday.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Despite Watson throwing 25 or fewer passes in six-straight games, he’s still flashed some upside in some of those spots.

He’s been the ninth-most efficient fantasy quarterback this year, averaging 0.55 fantasy points per dropback.

Watson makes for an excellent tournament pivot on both DraftKings and FanDuel, where he boasts a Leverage Rating of 85% and 88% in our FantasyLabs Models. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Browns +5.5

The Texans are the hottest thing going. They haven’t lost a game in about two months and just ran all over Tennessee in front of a national TV audience on Monday night.

Meanwhile, in addition to snubbing his former coach, Baker Mayfield and the Browns have actually played much better recently, beating Atlanta and Cincinnati the last two weeks.

Despite the Texans' gaudy record and winning streak, they STILL don't really have an impressive win of the bunch, as almost all the teams are sub-.500 or close, and Washington lost Alex Smith during their meeting with the Texans.

Monday night against Tennessee has been Houston's most impressive victory thus far, so I’m still not convinced the Texans are this good, so the difference between these teams may end up being a little smaller than the market thinks.

I’ll — gulp — take Cleveland on the road here. — Ken Barkley

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.