Cowboys v. Chiefs NFL Player Props: Ezekiel Elliot, CeeDee Lamb & Tyreek Hill Most Popular Picks
Pictures by Getty Images. Pictured: Ezekiel Elliot, Tyreek Hill.
|Cowboys Odds||+2.5 (-110)|
|Chiefs Odds||-2.5 (-110)|
|Time||4:25 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
The Dallas Cowboys will visit the Kansas City Chiefs for a big-time late afternoon game.
The Cowboys are ranked No. 4 in the NFL in both offensive and defensive DVOA, according to Football Outsiders.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs are ranked No. 5 in the NFL in offensive DVOA but rank third-worst in the league at defense.
And yet, despite the disparity between the Cowboys’ offense and Chiefs’ defense, Kansas City are -2.5 favorites for this Sunday tilt.
That implies that the bookmakers believe the Cowboys are just -0.5 favorites against the Chiefs on a neutral field.
Based on this year alone, that line is ridiculous. But, this is a legacy odds price more than anything else — the Chiefs’ line is contingent on their pedigree than their actual production.
That dichotomy is reflected in the betting handles. About 88% of the total money is on Dallas’ moneyline at +120, while only 12% of the money is on the Chiefs at -145.
And bettors are hammering these three player props, too.
Cowboys v. Chiefs Most Popular Player Props
- Ezekiel Elliot to score a touchdown at any point (-139)
- CeeDee Lamb to score a touchdown at any time (-105)
- Tyreek Hill to score a touchdown at any time (-125)
Odds and data according to PointsBet
Elliot has scored Sunday’s most popular player prop in five out of nine games this season.
That rate implies odds of about -125.
CeeDee Lamb has scored a touchdown in four of his nine games. That rate implies odds of about +125.
Each of these Cowboys lines provides less value than they should. Still, the Chiefs defense is 27th against the pass and 26th against the rush. They’re 30th in the NFL overall. This is a horrible defensive unit.
Simply because of that, I’d take a flier on any skill position props. Maybe I’ll even sprinkle in a Dak Prescott prop.
In terms of Tyreek Hill’s, third-most popular prop, he’s fulfilled it in five of his 10 games this season. That implies odds of +100.
Dallas has the third best pass defense in the NFL according to DVOA. I’d pass on this or any Patrick Mahomes props as a result.