Cowboys vs Giants NFL Odds, Pick | Dak Prescott Prop Prediction for Sunday Night Football

Cowboys vs Giants NFL Odds, Pick | Dak Prescott Prop Prediction for Sunday Night Football article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Dak Prescott (left) and Daniel Jones.

Giants vs Cowboys Odds Sunday Night Football

Sunday, Sept. 10
8:20 p.m. ET
Giants Odds
-110o / -110u
Cowboys Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

The first Sunday Night Football game of the 2023 NFL season is here, and so let's break down Cowboys vs. Giants odds.

Last season, the Cowboys swept the Giants — a common theme since Dak Prescott was drafted by Dallas. The Mississippi State product owns an impressive 9-2 record against the Giants with 21 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Prescott, however, is looking to rebound in 2023 after being responsible for 15 interceptions in 2022 — something that plays into my betting prediction for this game. Dallas has won 11-of-12 against New York, with the lone loss coming in a meaningless Week 17 game to close out the pandemic regular season in 2020.

Let's take a look at the matchup and make a Cowboys vs. Giants pick for Sunday Night Football.

Cowboys vs. Giants

Matchup Analysis

The Cowboys offense should look a bit different this season after the offseason departures of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and running back Ezekiel Elliott. You can expect more west-coast principles and a much heavier dose of Tony Pollard, which many Cowboy fans have been screaming for in recent seasons.

Dallas also acquired Brandin Cooks to add more speed on the outside to hopefully free up space for the rest of the skill-position players. The offensive line is strong when fully healthy, but that might not be the case on Sunday night, with projected starting left tackle Tyron Smith listed as questionable and projected starting left guard Tyron Smith listed as doubtful. The depth is unproven, so the status of either looms large.

Dallas will be facing a defense led by coordinator Wink Martindale, whose unit predictably led the league in blitz rate in 2022. That might prove disastrous against Prescott, who has generally thrived against extra pass rushers, especially if the brand-new secondary experiences growing pains with a pair of rookies slotted to get the nod on the outside. As a result, Adoree Jackson will likely man the slot a majority of the time, hoping to neutralize CeeDee Lamb, who cooked the Giants in 2022 with 14 catches for 193 yards across both matchups.

New York added some bulk to the interior to help plug up a vulnerable run defense that got gashed often in 2022, but the linebacker corps remains a major question mark. You can expect to see a number of quick passes and a heavy dose of Pollard to potentially exploit that soft underbelly.

Bet Dallas vs. New York at FanDuel

Cowboys -3.5

Giants +3.5

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On the other side of the ball, Dallas has had one of the league's best defenses in each of the past two seasons, finishing second in DVOA in consecutive years. A lot of that credit goes to defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, who has adapted his scheme and style to fit his personnel and the ever-evolving opposing passing attacks.

Dallas generated constant pressure in both meetings against Daniel Jones last year, holding the Giants to 20 and 16 points. Similar to New York, Dallas also added bulk in the interior, along with veteran corner Stephon Gilmore opposite Trevon Diggs. While Gilmore is no longer in his prime, he should provide an upgrade to one of the few weak spots on this defense a year ago.

If there's an exploitable area, it's over the middle of the field, especially if safety Donovan Wilson (doubtful) can't suit up. That makes the status of Darren Waller important. He was one of the major hauls of the offseason for New York but comes into this game listed as questionable with a hamstring injury.

Jones saw a major leap in efficiency last year, as the duo of Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka simplified the offense for him by shortening the field and limiting his reads with a heavy use of play-action and his scrambling ability. The weapons still aren't great on the outside, even with the additions of Parris Campbell and Jalin Hyatt, but the play-calling and scheme are as good as it gets.

The Giants offensive line remains a work in progress outside of left tackle Andrew Thomas. Against a deep and dominant Dallas defensive line, things could get messy if rookie center John Schmitz isn't ready to roll and right tackle Evan Neal doesn't level up in his second year.

Cowboys vs. Giants

Betting Picks & Predictions

With injury uncertainty on both sides at key positions, I have no interest in a pregame side, which looks fair to me as of now, even though home divisional dogs are always worth a second look in Week 1. I have a slight lean to the under at 45 or above, especially if the Cowboys offensive line isn't at full strength and Waller can't go.

I do like a rare prop in Prescott under 0.5 interceptions. That's being priced right around even money, which I think is probably due to the narrative surrounding Prescott's pick issues from a season ago. However, if you dig a bit deeper, many of those turnovers weren't his fault. As a result, he's a pretty big positive regression candidate in that department. For his career, he's only thrown 65 interceptions in 97 regular season games.

After this topic dominated summer discussions in Dallas, I wouldn't be shocked if Prescott played a bit more conservatively in the opener, knowing that's what everyone is waiting to see after he openly guaranteed he'd throw fewer interceptions in 2023. Plus, you should see a higher frequency of quick passes in this new offense, especially in this matchup against the blitz-heavy Giants.

Speaking of short passes, a way off-the-radar player I may target in the props market is tight end Peyton Hendershot. With Dalton Schultz out of the mix, the Cowboys have a crowded tight end room with three young options in starter Jake Ferguson, 2023 draft pick Luke Schoonmaker and Hendershot.

When Schultz wasn't on the field last year, Dallas used Hendershot (who's listed as No. 2 on the depth chart ahead of Schoonmaker) more as a passing option. I think the tight ends have a good matchup in this game and Hendershot will likely be undervalued in the market.

Pick: Dak Prescott Under 0.5 Interceptions (-115, bet365)

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