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Dallas Cowboys Odds: Is There Value in Win Totals, Props Following Dak Prescott’s Injury?

Dallas Cowboys Odds: Is There Value in Win Totals, Props Following Dak Prescott’s Injury? article feature image
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Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images. Pictured: Dak Prescott.

The Dallas Cowboys‘ odds took a hit across a number of markets following the announcement that Dak Prescott would miss some time due to a hand injury, so it’s worth examining if those markets reacted properly, not enough, or too much.

Some sportsbooks believe that the injury will derail the Cowboys’ season. After all, PointsBet even paid out bettors who took Dallas’ win total under.

Is PointsBet right to assume that this case is closed? Let’s examine.

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Dallas Cowboys Win Total Projections

According to DraftKings, the regular season win total is set at 7.5 (+125/-150). The under is juiced, so there’s more added belief that the Cowboys won’t be winning eight or more games.

My in-season NFL win total projections have the Cowboys at a 51% chance of winning eight or more games. This can be broken down into specific totals. For example, I have a 19% chance of Dallas earning eight wins and an 18% chance that it wins nine games.

The most likely individual outcome is seven wins, as my projections indicate a 20% chance that the Cowboys fall on that number.

Because the over is listed at +125, I do see some purely statistical value on that wager, but I wouldn’t personally bet it myself.

There are so many variables that go into this equation, including Prescott’s return date. It’s impossible to estimate exactly when that will be due to the lack of information and randomness surrounding injuries, and each game Prescott misses is heavily influenced.

Dallas Cowboys Make/Miss Playoffs Projections

While there are similar considerations to take into account regarding variables and unknowns in this market as well, I don’t actually see numerical value on the Cowboys in either direction based on the pricing in the market.

Dallas is +190 to make the playoffs and -250 to miss out. The vig on that market instantly makes it difficult to find value, and my projections don’t show either of those numbers as good enough to bet.

I currently estimate the Cowboys’ playoff chances at 30% make and 70% miss. Those percentages don’t translate to the implied probabilities required to like either price.

At 30%, the implied probability to be fair, per se, would be +233, and at 70% the fair number would be -233. At +190 and -250, neither of those numbers are gettable.

Verdict

As anti-climactic as it sounds, there really isn’t much value on either side of the board to get invested confidently.

We’ll need to know more about Prescott’s future to make more educated projections, and without that critical information, it’s hard to prognosticate.

For now, we’ll see how new starter Cooper Rush fares in his first game of the season at home against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Dallas is currently listed as a 7.5-point underdog.

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