The Green Bay Packers (2-1) and Dallas Cowboys (1-2) will face off in NFL Week 4. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The game will broadcast live on NBC.
The Packers are 6.5-point favorites over the Cowboys on the spread (Packers -6.5), with the over/under set at 46.5 total points. Green Bay is a -350 favorite to win outright, while Dallas is +275 to pull off the upset.
The Packers versus the Cowboys represents one of the most storied rivalries in the NFL, yet the Packers have won 10 of the last 11 meetings. Dallas will be without three of its key offensive players tonight, but early-season home underdogs have been a remarkably good bet to make in recent years.
Something has to give here. Let's get into my Packers vs. Cowboys predictions and NFL picks for Sunday Night Football tonight.
Packers vs Cowboys Prediction
- Packers vs Cowboys pick: Packers -6.5 (-115)
My Cowboys vs Packers best bet is on Green Bay to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Packers vs Cowboys Odds
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +275 |
Packers vs Cowboys Sunday Night Football Preview
The Dallas defense has been dreadful through three games. The Cowboys have surrendered 30.6 points per game and are 31st in yards per play allowed. They simply cannot get off the field on 3rd down.
Teams are converting 53% of their 3rd downs against them, which makes them the worst third-down defense in football. Green Bay just happens to be one of the better teams on the all-important down, converting 47% of the time, the 2nd best in the league.
The Cowboys haven’t been terrible at stopping the run to open the season, limiting opposing running backs to just 3.5 yards per carry.
It’s the passing defense that continues to be a major weakness. Dallas ranks 32nd in completion percentage over expectation, allowed at an astounding 12.2% over the normal expected rate.
Teams are completing the ball with ease, and this defense struggles to limit yards after the catch, ranking 22nd in yards allowed after the catch on a per-completion basis.
Cornerbacks Trevon Diggs and Kaiir Elam grade out as the 84th and 76th best in coverage grade, respectively, according to Pro Football Focus out of the 99 qualifying cornerbacks graded this season.
Not only do the Cowboys lack the personnel on defense to defend the pass, but they are also highly predictable because of it. Defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus has called a zone defense on more than 93% of their defensive snaps in coverage, the highest mark in the league.
Matt LaFleur and the Packers’ offensive staff know exactly what to prepare for heading into Sunday night.
The Cowboys also struggle to generate a pass rush. They rank 26th in pressure rate this season, getting absolutely shredded whenever they fail to affect the opposing passer.
According to Sharp Football analysis, quarterbacks have a perfect 158.3 passer rating when throwing from a clean pocket against the Cowboys, averaging 14.4 yards per attempt.
The Cowboys' offense has not been the reason for their 1-2 start to begin the season, but the losses of CeeDee Lamb, Cooper Beebe, and Tyler Booker do not bode well for their chances of success moving forward.
Since Lamb has been a member of the Cowboys, Dak Prescott has averaged just 5.7 yards per attempt on his passes without Lamb on the field.
For context, only a handful of quarterbacks this season are at 5.7 YPA or below, including the likes of Cam Ward, Joe Flacco, Spencer Rattler, and Bryce Young.
The Packers' defense has been excellent, and without Booker and Beebe up front, this could get ugly for the Cowboys offensively. Green Bay ranks 5th this season in pressure rate, with teams averaging an abysmal 4.4 yards per pass attempt on snaps that Micah Parsons has been on the field.
Packers vs Cowboys Prediction, Betting Analysis
For as good as this spot has been for underdogs within the first month of the season, I simply cannot back a Cowboys team with deficiencies on both sides of the ball.
I expect the Packers to win the line of scrimmage, as the pass-heavy attack from LaFleur and Jordan Love will reignite memories of the divisional playoff round just two years ago.
LaFleur has historically been a solid bet off a loss, covering the spread at a 59.3% rate.
The Cowboys may hang around for a half behind the emotion of a home primetime game, but eventually the leaks in their defense will give way to a bounce-back performance from the best team in the NFC, a.k.a. the Green Bay Packers.
Pick: Packers -6.5 (-115)
Spread
My Cowboys vs. Packers betting prediction is on Green Bay to cover the spread at -6.5.
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
No play on the total.
