Derrick Henry Prop Bets & Titans Odds Movement After Running Back’s Foot Injury
Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Derrick Henry
Derrick Henry's foot injury suffered in Sunday's win over the Indianapolis Colts has already been felt in the betting market for both the running back and his fellow Tennessee Titans.
Henry, the current leading rusher in the NFL this season, injured his foot in the team's 34-31 overtime win over the Colts on Sunday. He still played the entire game, rushing 28 times for 68 yards against a tough Colts run defense. But according to reports on Monday morning, it is believed Henry broke a bone in his foot that will sideline him for at least eight weeks.
That's bad news for the team with the best winning percentage in the AFC — at 6-2, Tennessee holds a commanding lead over the Colts in the AFC South making the division crown almost a formality.
According to Travis Reed's model, Tennessee has a 99% chance of making the playoffs:
AFC playoff odds per latest sims:
TEN 99%
BUF 99%
BAL 82%
CIN 77%
LV 64%
LAC 61%
NE 47%
PIT 45%
KC 33%
CLE 31%
DEN 31%
IND 30%
MIA 1%
JAX 0%
NYJ 0%
HOU 0%— Travis Reed (@BetLabsTravis) November 1, 2021
But if Henry isn't available to return for the playoffs or is compromised due to the injury, it's a hit to Super Bowl chances. The betting market reacted as such on Monday.
The Titans dropped from +1400 to win the Super Bowl to +1600 at BetMGM. The odds to win the AFC lengthened to +650 from +600. The odds to win the AFC South cut in half from -3333 to -1667 — still a massive favorite.
Where it hurts the most immediately is for prop bettors who were riding Henry's odds in the preseason.
Henry was the +500 favorite to lead the league in rushing touchdowns; his 10 touchdowns are two more than James Conner, who is second. He was +350 to lead the NFL in rushing yards; his 937 yards are 353 more than the next best rusher (Nick Chubb).
Hopefully bettors didn't spend that money because it's all but gone now.
If he doesn't play another regular season game, he'll come up short of his touchdown prop of 13.5. He was well on his way to passing his 1,525.5 rushing yard prop as well. The majority of tickets at BetMGM were on the over for both bets.
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