The Detroit Lions (5-3) and Washington Commanders (3-6) meet in Week 10 on Sunday, Nov. 9. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from Northwest Stadium in Landover, Md. The game will broadcast on FOX.
The Lions are 8-point spread favorites over the Commanders (Lions -8), with a game total of 49 points. Detroit is a -450 favorite to win on the moneyline, while Washington is +350 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Lions vs Commanders prediction for today's Week 10 game.
Lions vs Commanders Prediction
- Lions vs Commanders pick: Commanders +8.5 (-115)
My Lions vs Commanders best bet is on Washington to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Lions vs Commanders Odds
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | -450 |
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | +350 |
Lions vs Commanders Week 10 Preview
I understand that the Commanders have struggled mightily, losing four straight games and getting blown out in three of those. However, I can’t get around to them being 8-point underdogs in this game against the Lions.
Initially, I expected the line to be around 3.5, but with the injury to Jayden Daniels, the situation has changed. The assumption that moving from Daniels to Marcus Mariota represents a six-point difference is misguided, in my opinion.
From my analysis, I have this drop-off at quarterback at about three points.
Looking at their PFF grades, Daniels sits around 10th while Mariota ranks 8th. In terms of EPA and completion percentage over expectation, Mariota is 21st and Daniels is 23rd. Over the last two seasons, among quarterbacks with 150+ snaps, Mariota ranks 8th and Daniels 14th.
Mariota’s higher success rate, completion percentage, and air yards suggest that while he might not be a superstar, he’s a serviceable backup with a much smaller drop-off than perceived.
Given the QB numbers, anything over a touchdown is compelling enough for me to place a bet on the Commanders.
There are valid concerns about the Commanders' defensive injuries and Terry McLaurin, but despite these issues, they can still find ways to stay competitive.
The Lions offense has not looked the same since Oct. 1. During that span, they’ve faced teams with lower success rates and struggled with their rushing attack. Missing key components and having a compromised offensive line have diminished their effectiveness.
The drop-off from Frank Ragnow to Graham Glasgow at center is significant, and the loss of a guard like Christian Mahogany only exacerbates the situation.
The Lions’ tackles are questionable as well, with Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell question marks. Sewell did log a full practice on Friday while Decker did not. If neither can play, their offensive line might face serious challenges.
Washington, meanwhile, has been able to generate pressure, particularly up the middle, which could disrupt Jared Goff’s rhythm, especially if weather conditions shift.
The Commanders intend to lean on their run game, given their ranking in rushing success rate (seventh). Even without McLaurin, I expect them to use more 12-personnel and rely on Mariota’s mobility, controlling the clock with a ball-control approach.
The Lions defense isn’t at full strength, particularly in the secondary, creating an opening for the Commanders.
Lions vs Commanders Prediction, Betting Analysis
Here’s a compelling trend: teams that have been underdogs of three or more points and on losing streaks (like the Commanders), with a negative cover margin and averaging more than 14 points per game tend to provide good value.
Historically, these teams have covered about 63% of the time.
Ultimately, this line is at least a point and a half too high.
While betting on the Commanders requires some mettle, I’m comfortable taking them against a Lions offense that is currently lacking explosiveness.
Pick: Commanders +8.5 (-115)
Spread
My Commanders vs Lions betting prediction is on Washington to cover the spread.
Moneyline
I'm taking the points with the Commanders as opposed to betting the moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
