DraftKings is hosting an exclusive VIP promo for some bettors ahead of the NFL season on one of its futures markets.
It's not just any futures market, however. The subsection — titled "Team Specials" — contains a set of unique longshot futures on every team in the NFL.
For instance, our favorite picks of the bunch are on the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes to record one or more passing touchdowns in every game this season at +550 and on Anthony Richardson to record 12 or more rushing touchdowns. These are specialty picks created by the traders at DraftKings.
This is where the promo makes this market decidedly +EV, however. VIP bettors have a max bet up to $1,000 at a 33% profit boost on any of the picks in this entire section.
And we're here to help you pick out the most valuable of the bunch.
Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson to Combine for 2000+ Rushing Yards in the Regular Season (+350)
Let’s do the math here, shall we?
Henry’s joining a new team, but he averaged 1,577 yards in three of his last four healthy seasons. A couple hundred yards below that number would still be enough to do the heavy lifting for this particular future.
The concern here is that Henry’s going from a bell-cow back role to more of a timeshare than he’s accustomed to. His numbers have fallen by a few hundred yards over the last few seasons, and he now joins a Ravens team that typically likes spreading carries among backs, to couple with designed quarterback runs.
Keaton Mitchell proved worthy of touches last season, but he won’t return until after the season begins, seeing as he’s on the PUP list recovering from last December’s season-ending knee injury. That should lead to a steady workload for Henry early on before he returns, giving us a strong launching point from the get-go.
Now let’s add in Jackson’s prowess carrying the ball.
The reigning MVP ran for 821 yards a year ago, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. He ran for 764 yards in only 12 games the season prior as he averaged 6.8 ypc. Jackson has also run for over 1,000 yards twice in his career, though not since 2020.
This is certainly a tough number for the duo to eclipse. Still, there’s a clear path to seeing how this one hits.
Bryce Young to Throw for 3500+ Passing Yards in the Regular Season (+200)
Last year’s number one overall pick must take a significant leap forward in his sophomore season to reach this number. He completed only over 59% of his passes (315-of-527) for just 2,877 yards, 11 touchdowns and 10 interceptions as a rookie. That all added up to a putrid 33.4 QBR that ranked 29th in the league.
Still, this is quite a low threshold for a starting quarterback to reach. In fact, 16 passers eclipsed this mark in 2023, including Sam Howell and Derek Carr, who aren’t exactly considered world beaters.
Young’s also in a much better position to succeed this season than last.
His new head coach Dave Canales is regarded as a QB guru while the front office brought in a few new toys for him to play with.
They traded for Dionte Johnson, who’s earned rave review this summer. He already has experience thriving with subpar QB play while with the Steelers, totaling 1,161 yards in 2021, 882 in 2022 and 717 yards in 14 games last season.
Carolina also got Young a new weapon in the draft, selecting Xavier Legette in the first round. The former South Carolina star caught 71 passes for 1,255 yards and seven touchdowns last year for the Gamecocks.
Aidan Hutchinson to Record 15+ Sacks in the Regular Season (+500)
I love the value here at +500.
Notching 15 sacks is well-within reason for elite pass rushers, and Hutchinson surely qualifies as one. He burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2022 with 9.5 sacks. He built on that number last year with 11.5, which tied for 12th most in the NFL.
Only five players totaled 15 sacks a year ago in T.J. Watt (19), Trey Henderson (17.5(, Josh Allen (17.5), Khalil Mack (17.0) and Danielle Hunter (16.5). Hutchinson is right up there with all those players as one of the league’s elite pass rushers, and it feels it’s only a matter of when, not if, he’ll record 15 sacks.
Now, odds are Hutchinson won’t reach that number since only a handful do each year. However, getting 5-to-1 odds on your investment is tremendous bang for your buck considering Hutchinson’s status as an elite sack master.
Anthony Richardson to Score 12+ Rushing Touchdowns in the Regular Season (+550)
This might be my favorite longshot bet considering the odds and number.
Twelve rushing touchdowns feels not only well within reach, but perhaps no worse than a coin flip considering Richardson’s skillset and style of play. He appeared in only four games last year and left injured in two of them. However, he scored four rushing touchdowns in that limited playing time.
Even those terrible at math can figure out that translates to one rushing score per game.
This is not to say he’ll average that over a full 17 games should he manage to stay healthy, but if any quarterback can do so, it’s Richardson. Plus, those worried he’ll scale back his style of play considering how last year ended need not fret as head coach Shane Steichen said they aren’t changing the way he plays one bit.
Two quarterbacks not only surpassed 12 touchdowns last year, but actually tied for second-most rushing scores of any player in the league behind only Raheem Mostert, Josh Allen and Jalen “Tush Push” Hurts.
Richardson seems more than primed to potentially join them. In fact, adding up all the variables, staying healthy is the biggest impediment to him cashing this longshot prop. I’ll take a shot on this at +550 eight days a week.
KC Chiefs to Score 1+ Passing TD in Every Regular Season Game (+550)
Patrick Mahomes has thrown a touchdown in all but one game over the past two seasons including the playoffs, so +550 seems like terrific odds for a dart play that he’ll toss one in every game this season.
He threw a TD in 35 straight games spanning three seasons before failing to do so in a shocking 24-9 fluke loss to the lowly Broncos last October. Oh, and by the way, he happened to be suffering from the flu that day.
There’s not much else that needs to be said here. Mahomes is arguably the greatest quarterback to ever step foot on a field and has a history of throwing touchdowns at an extraordinary rate. He’d probably still have a consecutive streak going if not for his inability to emulate the famed Michael Jackson Flu Game. So, I’m more than willing to put a taste on this one, especially if getting an odds boost.
Tua Tagovailoa 30+ Reg Season Passing TDs (+290)
Deep throws to speedsters Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle streaking down field.
Quick strikes to them and then sitting back as they use their elite YAC-skills to waltz into the end zone.
Dump offs to Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane, who then juke defenders on their way to the end zone.
Or, in other words, there’s a chance a Tua pass will end in a touchdown every time he drops back no matter where he is on the field.
This is certainly a tempting team special to back considering Tua fell one single TD pass shy of hitting this mark in 2023. In fact, you can argue he probably would have if Hill hadn’t gotten banged up down the stretch a year ago.
Miami adds Odell Beckham Jr. to the mix now, as well. He’s currently banged up on the PUP list, and certainly isn’t anywhere close to what he was in his heyday in general. Still, he commands enough respect when on the field to further open things up for Hill and Waddle in Miami’s wide-open offense.
