Eight weeks into the 2025 NFL season, rookie quarterback Drake Maye is putting together one of the most remarkable starts in modern football history.
Once buried at 100-1 in the MVP odds entering Week 4, Maye has rocketed into the top tier of contenders, climbing to +500 entering Week 9 — a faster ascent than almost any player in recent memory. What began as a speculative story has turned into an all-time statistical season and a legitimate MVP campaign.
1. All-Time Efficiency
Through eight games, Maye has thrown for 2,026 yards with a 75.2% completion rate — joining one of the most exclusive clubs in NFL history.
| Player | Year | Pass Yards | Completion Rate | Through Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 2025 | 2,026 | 75.2 | 8 |
| Drew Brees | 2018 | 2,000+ | 75+ | 8 |
2. Consistent Greatness
Only five quarterbacks in league history have recorded at least 200 passing yards and a passer rating of 100 or higher in seven straight games — a list that reads like a Hall of Fame ballot.
| Quarterback | Seasons with 200+ Yards and 100+ Rating in 7 Straight Games |
|---|---|
| Tom Brady | ✓ |
| Peyton Manning | ✓ |
| Aaron Rodgers | ✓ |
| Patrick Mahomes | ✓ |
| Drake Maye | ✓ |
3. Elite Downfield Production
Maye’s downfield accuracy and aggression have been unmatched in 2025. As highlighted by advanced passing data, his deep-ball performance rivals some of the greatest seasons ever recorded.
Drake Maye is currently having the greatest downfield passing season of *all time*
By a wide margin. MayeVP? pic.twitter.com/gtCG91IuDK
— Brady Penn (@bradypenn21) October 28, 2025
4. All-Time Start
Drake Maye’s passing efficiency has reached a level reserved for only the greatest seasons in NFL history. Through eight games, his combination of accuracy, explosiveness, and production places him in rare company alongside two of the most dominant quarterbacks of the modern era.
Only three players have ever averaged more than 70 percent completions, nine or more yards per attempt, and over 2,000 passing yards through the first half of a season—and Maye is now one of them.
| Quarterback | Year | Completion Rate | Yards per Attempt | Pass Yards (Through 8 Games) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 2025 | 70+ | 9+ | 2,000+ |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2011 | 70+ | 9+ | 2,000+ |
| Tom Brady | 2007 | 70+ | 9+ | 2,000+ |
The Odds Swing
No storyline captures Maye’s meteoric rise more clearly than his week-to-week MVP odds movement. Starting at +5000, drifting to +10000 midseason, then surging to +500 entering Week 9, the market has caught up to his play — fast.
| Week | Drake Maye MVP Odds |
|---|---|
| Week 4 | +10000 |
| Week 5 | +10000 |
| Week 6 | +3500 |
| Week 7 | +1500 |
| Week 8 | +1000 |
| Week 9 | +500 |
For context, the current top contenders — Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen — began the season as preseason favorites.
| Player | Week 9 Odds | Preseason Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +140 | +650 |
| Josh Allen | +350 | +600 |
| Drake Maye | +500 | +5000 |
Rarity of the Rapid Climb
In the last five seasons, only two other players have made a comparable four-week leap from 100-1 or longer to 10-1 or shorter — both in 2024.
| Player | Year | Week-to-Week MVP Odds Movement |
|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 2024 | Week 11: 150-1 → Week 13: 4-1 |
| Jayden Daniels | 2024 | Week 4: 100-1 → Week 6: 10-1 |
Both rode the “hot hand” narrative deep into the season — but neither completed the MVP run.
Longshot History Says It’s Rare
If Maye completes the climb, he’d join an incredibly short list of MVPs who started the year with 50-1 odds or longer.
| Player | Year | Preseason Odds | Final Record | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 2016 | 75-1 | 11-5 | 38 TDs, 7 INT, 4,944 yards, lost Super Bowl |
| Cam Newton | 2015 | 52-1 | 15-1 | 35 Pass TD, 10 INT, 636 Rush Yds, 10 Rush TD, lost Super Bowl |
Can He Actually Pull It Off?
If Drake Maye continues at his current pace — combining Brees-like accuracy, Brady and Rodgers-level efficiency, and a trajectory similar to Newton and Ryan’s MVP runs — he could deliver one of the most improbable award-winning seasons in NFL history.
From 100-1 longshot to 5-1 favorite, his rookie campaign has already rewritten expectations. The only question left is whether he can finish what he started.
