Giants vs. Cowboys Updated Odds, Prediction, Pick: Betting Preview, Spread Bet for Week 5
Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images. Pictured: Dak Prescott.
- The Cowboys are a touchdown favorite over the Giants in Week 5 NFL action from Dallas (4:25 p.m. ET, FOX).
- Dallas looks like a complete team with Dak Prescott healthy and the defense playing better, while Daniel Jones has hung tough for the Giants despite a 1-3 record.
Giants vs. Cowboys Odds
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After losing their opener, the Dallas Cowboys have won three straight games and now sit at 3-1 at the top of the NFC East. They can put some more distance between themselves and the rest of the division this week as they host the 1-3 New York Giants, who are coming off an upset victory over the New Orleans Saints.
The Giants overcame a 21-10 fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Saints in overtime and hope to get a second straight road win, one that would be crucial in the race for the NFC East.
For the second straight week the Giants have been installed as 7-point underdogs, this time with a total of 53.
Can Daniel Jones and the Giants pull off another upset, or will Dak Prescott and the Cowboys continue to ride their high-flying offense to another win?
Let’s analyze both sides and find out.
Giants Face Key Injuries on Both Sides
Jones led the comeback in New Orleans last week with an impressive performance, completing 28-of-40 passes for 402 yards and two touchdowns. Even more impressive is that the Giants were missing both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton with injuries.
Kenny Golladay led New York in receiving with six catches for 116 yards, while Saquan Barkley continues to regain his form on the ground. He ran the ball 13 times for 52 yards while also catching a 54-yard touchdown to get the Giants within one score in the fourth quarter.
Shepard and Slayton will both miss this game, and it will be interesting to see how Golladay fares in his matchup with Trevon Diggs this week.
Unfortunately for the Giants, the injury news doesn’t stop there. Left tackle Andrew Thomas is questionable for this matchup with a foot injury, while left guard Ben Bredeson is out with a hand injury.
Injuries aside, this is an offensive line that ranks in the middle of the pack in both pass block and run block win rate. Despite the injuries, though, the Giants offense is 12th in efficiency and eighth in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, so they should be able to score against this Cowboys defense.
Defensively, the Giants will struggle in this matchup and it doesn’t help that they’ll be without safety Jabrill Peppers, who will miss Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury.
The Giants are 27th in Football Outsiders Defensive DVOA, 27th in EPA/play and 18th in dropback success rate.
New York gave up 30 points to the Washington Football team earlier this season, allowing Taylor Heinicke to complete 34-of-46 passes for 336 yards and two touchdowns. It’s tough to imagine this defense slowing down the Cowboys offense.
Dak Puts Cowboys Offense Among NFL’s Elite
With Dak Prescott under center, the Cowboys have a quarterback who is more than capable of leading this team to a Super Bowl. He’s third in Football Outsiders DVOA, second in Success Rate and top 10 in EPA/play.
With weapons everywhere in Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, this unit is tough to stop, even without wide receiver Michael Gallup (calf).
The Cowboys have the best offense in the league, excluding the Kansas City Chiefs. They’re at the top of nearly every offensive metric — third in scoring offense at 31.5 points per game, first in success rate (56.0%) and third in EPA/play.
The Cowboys are also first in early down success rate (56.6%). With Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard in the backfield, Dallas doesn’t put itself in many third-and-long situations. It’s no surprise that the Cowboys are second in third down conversion rate (50%).
Elliott is quietly having a resurgent season, ranking third in the NFL in rushing yards (342) while averaging 5.3 yards per carry with four touchdowns. Then there’s Pollard, who has kept Elliott fresh by rushing for 250 yards on 6.8 yards per carry this season.
We all expected the Cowboys offense to remain dominant coming into this season based on what we saw last year, so the biggest surprise is their defense.
This unit is still far from being one of the league’s best, but it is forcing turnovers, ranking second in takeaways and helping Dallas to a +7 turnover differential.
In his second season, Diggs leads the NFL in interceptions (five) while rookie linebacker Micah Parsons continues to be a bright spot for this defense. It’s no surprise that veteran linebacker Jaylon Smith was seen as expendable and released last week.
While it has impressed, the Cowboys defense is not going to shut down anyone at just 18th in Success Rate. Dallas remains heavily reliant on Prescott and its offense to win games.
Sharp money hit this total from the opener of 49.5 up to where it currently sits at 53 (check real-time odds here). Although I do believe we’re looking at a high-scoring game that goes over the total, I can’t recommend a play on the total at this current price with 51 and 52 being key numbers.
That said, the Giants are playing their second straight road game and coming off an emotional win in New Orleans. This feels like a letdown spot for the Giants against a Cowboys offense that is the best in the league outside of the Chiefs.
I’ll lay the points with the Cowboys here.
Pick: Cowboys -7