Giants vs. Eagles Betting Angle for MNF: Bad NFL Teams Are Good Bets Late in Season

The New York Giants have ruled out Daniel Jones for the team’s showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN). The rookie quarterback is dealing with a high ankle sprain.

Eli Manning will get the start for the G-Men — his first since being benched in Week 3. The two-time Super Bowl Champion is in the final year of his contract and his future with the Giants and in the NFL is unclear.

Little is expected from the 38-year-old quarterback and the Giants. Manning has completed 56 of 89 (62.9%) passes for 556 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions this season, and New York has lost eight consecutive games.

Oddsmakers opened the Giants as 8.5-point underdogs in Philadelphia. With Jones out, the Eagles have moved to 10-point favorites.

Casual bettors will likely shy away from Manning & Co. But history tells us bad teams are often undervalued.

Since 2003, teams that have won fewer than 20% of their games, like the Giants, have gone 516-482-25 (52%) against the spread (ATS) according to Bet Labs. Bad teams are more profitable as underdogs and the optimal situation to bet on them is late in the season.

A $100 bettor following this strategy would have returned a profit of $1,868 since 2003. This isn’t the largest sample size but the results have been consistent year-to-year. This betting system works because oddsmakers are more likely to inflate lines against opponents facing bad teams, which leads to value backing the squad that has been playing poorly.

It is not just history that points to value on the Giants. The Action Network's simulations have the Eagles winning by 6.6 points on average and Sean Koerner’s power ratings make Philly a 8.5-point favorite.

At the key number of 10, there is value betting on the Giants in what could be Eli Manning’s last start.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at William Hill]