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Giants vs Packers Odds, Picks, Prediction

Giants vs Packers Odds, Picks, Prediction article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Saquon Barkley (left) and Aaron Rodgers.

  • In their first London game ever, the Packers are 8-point favorites against the Giants.
  • Green Bay has won three straight, although it took overtime to beat New England last week.
  • Phillip Kall breaks down the game and makes his prediction below.

Giants vs. Packers Odds

Sunday, Oct. 9
9:30 a.m. ET
NFL Network
Giants Odds
-110o / -110u
Packers Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Green Bay will look to rebound after the messy game it played against New England. Yes, the Packers won, but it was a rough one to watch.

Despite facing a third-string quarterback for most of the game, Green Bay still needed the full length of overtime to win. The Packers are 3-1 and tied with Minnesota atop the NFC North. We'll see if things go better in London as they're heavy favorites again.

The Giants are also 3-1, but books aren't sold. New York entered this year with low expectations and, due to excellent coaching work from Brian Daboll and Wink Martindale, it has surpassed the bar that was set. Maybe they can continue impressing and pull off an upset across the pond.

Giants vs. Packers Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Giants and Packers match up statistically:

Giants vs. Packers DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA1617
Pass DVOA199
Rush DVOA728
Overall DVOA823
Pass DVOA1423
Rush DVOA521
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The Packers' offense continues to feel stale to start the season. It ranks 11th in yards per drive, but turning that production into points is an issue, as it ranks 21st in points per drive. 

The good news is a couple players have emerged as key playmakers. On the ground, Aaron Jones is averaging 6.8 yards per carry, 1.3 more than his previous career high. In the air, Romeo Doubs has emerged as Aaron Rodgers' go-to receiver with eight targets in each of the past two games. His only mistake on those 16 targets was a drop at the end of regulation against New England.

The one area the Packers still miss Davante Adams, and even Marquez Valdes-Scantling for that matter, is in the deep passing game. Per STATS, the Packers only have five big play passes on the year. Missing these chunk plays prevents Green Bay from aligning its scoring output yardage totals.

The Packers defense has been able to keep opposing offenses down.

Since Week 1, when the Packers seemingly forgot to cover Justin Jefferson, the defense has allowed 46 points (15.3 per game). Green Bay also has added the benefit of forcing at least one turnover in each of those games.

The one area the Packers stand to improve though is against the run, allowing a 22nd-ranked 5.0 yards per carry. That's good news for a New York ground attack averaging 5.7 yards per carry, which is second in the NFL.

After a few years of inconsistent play and injuries, Saquon Barkley is back to playing like one of the league’s best runners, leading the NFL with 463 rushing yards.

Barkley's bounce back is huge because the Giants rank last in net yards per  passing attempt and second-to-last in total passing yards. Wan’Dale Robinson and Kadarius Toney will once again be out. That leaves Darius Slayton, David Sills and Richie James left as receiving options (I'm expecting little/nothing from Kenny Golladay).

Per PFF, New York is in the bottom third in all defensive facets: Against the run, creating pressure and in coverage.

However, the genius of Martindale as a defensive coordinator has the Giants playing great in high-leverage situations. The Giants are second in third-down conversion rate against and second in red-zone conversion rate (per Pro Football Reference). As long as New York continues bending but not breaking, it should compete in every game.

Betting Picks

Against the Buccaneers and the Patriots, Green Bay felt in control and like it was its game to lose. Those games were decided by a combined five points, though, and both teams had chances to beat the Pack. Without explosive plays, the Packers offense is forced to rely on long drives to create points.

This plays right into the hands of the Giants' defense. New England played well in key situations and forced Rodgers to the sidelines before Green Bay could score key touchdowns. The Giants defense will need to win those leverage plays to protect the offense.

If New York allows Green Bay to get a two-score lead things could get ugly. No one wants to see what New York looks like in must-throw situations.

Fortunately, we have seen the Packers play comfortably even with just a small lead. They did it nearly the entire game against Tampa Bay. Even against New England, it didn’t seem like they pushed the envelope until late. 

I am not sure if these conservative styles keep things tight enough to hit the under. But I will bet the Packers play it close enough for the Giants to cover the large spread.

FanDuel Quickslip: Giants +8 | Bet to +7.5

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