Cowboys vs Packers Prediction & Pick: NFL Wild Card (Jan. 14)

My Cowboys vs Packers prediction & pick is on the over/under, which is listed at 50.5 total points at most sportsbooks. The Cowboys vs Packers spread has the Cowboys listed as 7-point favorites.

Points should be plentiful when the Packers visit the Cowboys on Super Wild Card Weekend. The question is whether the combined total can go over the 50.5 points it’s crept up to as Sunday kickoff approaches. It’s a tough threshold to cross — the under has been profitable the past two seasons when the total is that high. However, these teams feel primed to hit the over, so let’s look into the primary reasons why it’s my preferred Packers-Cowboys bet.

The Packers got a boost ahead of kickoff with both CB Jaire Alexander and WR Christian Watson being active.

Here's my Cowboys vs Packers prediction.

It’s hard to imagine a more perfect storm for an over this high to hit than the Packers on the road and the Cowboys at home.

Road overs in Packers games have been a goldmine for bettors, going 7-2 in the regular season. The over has been incredibly profitable down the stretch in general, cashing in six straight Green Bay games prior to last week’s season finale.

Jordan Love and company were particularly lethal away from Lambeau Field, averaging the league’s fourth-most points on the road (25.3). At the same time, Dallas' defense, which has been strong overall, has some flaws beneath the surface.

The Cowboys have impressed against some of the worst offenses while struggling against league-average offenses or better. In fact, their defense allowed 25.75 points per game against eight teams ranked inside the top 20 in DVOA. Green Bay’s offense finished the year sixth in total DVOA — fourth in passing and 15th in rushing.

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Meanwhile, the Cowboys offense has been ridiculous at home, averaging a league-high 37.4 points per game. That is far and away the best mark in the league, and 5.5 points higher than the next closest team. That’s a similar gap as between the NFL’s second-highest scoring offense and the seventh.

Dak Prescott and the rest of the offense’s performance is a main reason why home games have been incredibly high-scoring, with an average of 53.25 points per game scored at AT&T Stadium. Five of the team’s eight games eclipsed the 50.5 mark set for Sunday. Additionally, three of the Cowboys’ home games went over 60, with one topping out at 76.

Although Green Bay’s offense has emerged as one of the league’s best, its defense ranks as one of the worst. It finished 27th in total DVOA despite facing weak offenses all season. The Packers played only three teams that finished in the top 10 in scoring.

The game also features the league’s top two quarterbacks in passing touchdowns, with Prescott throwing a league-high 36 and Love close behind with 32. They’re two of the busiest, as well, with Prescott throwing the fourth-most pass attempts (590) and Love the fifth (579).

The pass-heavy nature of each offense is a big reason why each team averages a ton of plays. Dallas averages the third most (66) while Green Bay ranked sixth over the last three weeks of the season (65.3).

Not only that, but each team is among the league leaders in points per play. The Cowboys enter the playoffs ranked third (0.454) while the Packers are 10th (0.423). However, Green Bay ranks fifth over its last three games (0.423), showing just how potent the offense has become heading into the postseason.

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It'd be a stunner if Sunday’s showdown doesn’t turn into a shootout. The only question is if it can soar above a threshold that’s been tough to clear of late. Games closing at a total of 50 or higher are 10-2 to the under this season and 28-12 the past two years.

Nonetheless, all the ingredients are there to exceed 50.5 points. The only question is whether the recipe comes together. The public certainly believes it will, with 82% of the tickets and money backing it.

Full transparency: I managed to grab this at 48.5 earlier in the week, and it’s crept up to a number I was initially wary of. However, enough trends, data and patterns have changed my mind, especially the fact that an average of 53.25 points have been scored at AT&T Stadium. As a result, I’m comfortable backing this up to 51.5.