The Green Bay Packers (5-3-1) and New York Giants (2-8) meet in Week 11 on Sunday, Nov. 16. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. The game will broadcast on FOX.
The Packers are favored by -7 on the spread over the Giants (Packers -7), with the over/under set at 42.5. Green Bay is a -370 moneyline favorite and New York is a +290 underdog.
Let's get into my Packers vs Giants predictions for today's Week 11 game.
Packers vs Giants Prediction
- Packers vs Giants pick: Packers -7 (-110)
My Packers vs Giants best bet is on the Packers to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Packers vs Giants Odds
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -370 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +290 |
Packers vs Giants Week 11 Preview
The Packers were abysmal on Monday Night Football, completely laying an egg in front of a national audience.
Everybody watched the Packers average just four yards per play and muster seven points, which makes this a perfect time to back them, as the line for their game against the Giants has made them a modest favorite by a touchdown.
Green Bay’s defense played extremely well against the Eagles, limiting quarterback Jalen Hurts and company to just 4.9 yards per play. For as inconsistent as the offense has been, the defense has held strong, ranking eighth in defensive DVOA and third in yards per play allowed.
Jameis Winston will make his first start as a Giant today, and as exciting as the thought of that is, he steps in to face a pass defense that allows a league-low 5.9 yards per attempt.
Furthermore, the allure of watching Winston play has drawn plenty of fanfare, partly because of how volatile he is. No passer in the NFL was credited with a higher turnover-worthy throw rate than Winston in 2024, when he had the opportunity to play.
Green Bay’s offense has a great chance to bounce back against the 28th-ranked defense in terms of yards per play allowed. The Giants struggle in three key defensive areas — they cannot stop the run, they fail to generate consistent pressure on the quarterback and they rarely take the ball away.
Looking at expected points added (EPA/play) on a per-play basis, no rush defense has afforded their opponents more success on the ground than the Giants; they rank last in the league in this metric.
If New York is somehow fortunate enough to stop the run, Packers QB Jordan Love should still be plenty comfortable in the pocket on third down — the Giants are 22nd in pressure rate and Green Bay’s offensive line boasts an adjusted sack rate of just 5.3%, which is the fourth-lowest mark in the NFL. Simply put, this is a tremendous matchup for the Packers' offensive line.
In addition to the abundance of yards the Giants have surrendered, more than 70% of all opponent trips into the red zone have resulted in a touchdown. Only one red-zone defense has been worse in the NFL this season.
The Packers' methodical approach will create efficient drives, and they are very likely to result in seven points each time they need to finish a drive.
Packers vs Giants Prediction, Betting Analysis
Packers head coach Matt LaFleur usually has his team focused following a defeat. Green Bay is 15-8 against the spread following a loss under LaFleur, covering the number at a 65.2% rate.
This trend was bucked last week when the Packers failed to cover against the Eagles, but the Giants defense will not offer nearly as much resistance..
With this line trickling down to 7, I am thrilled to play it at this number, considering I would play this up to Packers -8.
Pick: Packers -7 (-110, bet365); bet to -8
Spread
I think the Packers bounce back and cover the spread in this game.
Moneyline
I have no bet for either side of the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm steering clear of the total.
