The Houston Texans (7-5) and Kansas City Chiefs (6-6) meet tonight for Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. The game will broadcast live on NBC/Peacock.
The Chiefs are 4.5-point favorites on the spread over the Texans (Chiefs -4.5; -105), with the over/under set at 41.5. The Chiefs are -210 moneyline favorites while the Texans are +175 underdogs.
Let's get into my Texans vs Chiefs prediction for Sunday Night Football — plus the latest NFL odds, betting trends, injury reports, weather forecast and more.
Texans vs Chiefs Predictions, Picks
- Texans vs Chiefs pick: Under 41.5 (or better)
My Texans vs Chiefs best bet is on the game total to go under 41.5. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Texans vs Chiefs Odds
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -115 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +175 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -105 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -210 |
Sunday Night Football Preview, Prediction
In a weekend full of high-leverage games in terms of the playoff race, this one sits near the top of the list.
How important is this game for both teams? Well, according to some models, Kansas City's playoff chances drop to around 10% with a loss, which would drop the Chiefs to 6-7 on the season.
Not only would a defeat put K.C. behind the 8-ball from a pure record perspective, forcing it to win out to just get to 10-7, it would have another loss against a team it could end up tied with, having already dropped games against the Jaguars, Chargers and Bills. (It does at least hold a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Colts).
However, with a win, optimism would start to grow amongst Chiefs fans with a remaining schedule that includes home revenge matchups against the Chargers and Broncos with two road contests against the lowly Titans and Raiders.
In regards to the Texans, they currently sit one game ahead of the Chiefs in the AFC playoff race and would effectively take a three-game lead with a victory. According to the New York Times' NFL playoff predictor model, Houston's playoff odds jump to 84% with a victory, but are below a coin flip (45%) with a loss, which would drop them below Kansas City.
Houston is playing its best football of the season and has three games left with teams it will battle for a playoff spot with in these Chiefs, the Colts, and Chargers.
While these teams appear to be headed in different directions with the Texans having won four straight and Chiefs dropping three of four, that can all change tonight.
Despite their .500 record, the Chiefs are still power rated in market as one of the best teams in the NFL.
So, what has happened to Kansas City this season? It has mainly just lost a ton of close games. Through 13 weeks, the Chiefs have gone 1-6 in one-possession games.
The opposite was true last year when they went an astonishing 11-0 during the regular season in one-score games (12-0 including the postseason). Even the Chiefs aren't immune to close-game regression.
While Kansas City has been unlucky in tight games, its defense has simply not matched the level we saw in 2024. Just take a look at some of these split differences:
- 2024*: 10th EPA per Play | 9th Success Rate | 18th DVOA
- 2025: 21st EPA per Play | 21st Success Rate | 10th DVOA
*I excluded the Week 18 game from last season when K.C. sat its starters.
The defensive line production has regressed, which has impacted the run defense and pass rush (K.C. hasn't had a sack in 11 quarters). There are also some other little issues that add up to bigger problems, such as more missed assignments on the back end and more penalties.
With that said, I'd imagine we see one of their better efforts tonight with the season on the line and extra time for Steve Spagnuolo to dial up some new pressure packages.
The Chiefs defense has allowed only 14 points per game at home with none of their six opponents scoring more than 20. And it's not like they've faced a bunch of cupcakes with games against Baltimore, Philadelphia, Detroit, Indianapolis, Washington and Las Vegas (okay, one cupcake).
Houston's offense is definitely trending up after a very slow start to the season. The offensive line is playing much better overall and Woody Marks has provided more juice out of the backfield.
Additionally, the young Houston wide receivers have really come along to provide more reliable secondary options when Nico Collins isn't being targeted.
However, Houston still struggles to cap drives off with touchdowns, as it ranks second-worst in the NFL (behind only New Orleans) in red-zone touchdown percentage. For all of Kansas City's defensive issues, it has still remained stout (7th) inside the 20.
Kansas City's offense can really lack balance at times, but Mahomes and company have not been the issue. The offense is much more potent than the group we saw in 2024.
- 2024: 9th EPA per Play | 4th Success Rate | 7th DVOA
- 2025: 3rd in EPA per Play | 5th in Success Rate | 3rd DVOA
However, things might not look as smooth against the best defense in the NFL.
The Texans don't have the most exotic defense scheme in the league. They are just well-schooled under head coach DeMeco Ryans and have elite players, highlighted by a relentless pass rush and lockdown corners — a lethal combination in today's NFL.
Not only will K.C. have to face an elite Houston front, it will likely have to do so without three starting offensive linemen.
Left tackle Josh Simmons was just placed on IR, while All-Pro right guard Trey Smith and starting right tackle Jawaan Taylor are listed as doubtful — not ideal against Will Anderson and friends.
Texans vs Chiefs Predictions, SNF Betting Analysis
Over the past three seasons, the Texans have been the most profitable under team in the entire NFL. Since 2023, Houston unders have gone 31-15 (67.4%).
Which team is right behind them as the second-most profitable under team?
The Chiefs at 30-16 (65.2%). Kansas City has especially been an under machine in home games during that stretch at 17-6 (73.9%).
The Chiefs tend to have a high rate of long, clock-bleeding drives in home games, which are obviously conducive to an under. I believe they will have to take an even more extreme version of that approach given their offensive line injuries against the ferocious Houston front, which lends itself to another Kansas City home grinder.
While Kansas City's defense has not lived up to expectations to date, I expect a strong effort with plenty of exotic blitz looks from Spags, which still give C.J. Stroud major issues.
Both offenses should struggle to consistently sustain drives and finish them off with touchdowns, so this feels like a 20-17 type of outcome to me.
Pick: Under 41.5 (or better)
Texans vs Chiefs Betting Trends
Texans vs Chiefs Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. |
| Date: | Sunday, Dec. 7 |
| Time: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | NBC | Peacock |
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