The Houston Texans and New England Patriots battle in the NFL Divisional Round on Sunday, January 18. Kickoff is set for 3:00 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. The game will broadcast live on ABC/ESPN.
The Patriots are favored by -3 on the spread, with the over/under set at 40.5 points. The Patriots are -180 favorites to win outright on the moneyline; the Texans are +150 underdogs to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my AFC Divisional Round preview Texans vs Patriots predictions or Sunday, January 18.
Texans vs Patriots Prediction
- Texans vs Patriots pick: Texans +3
My Texans vs Patriots best bet is on Houston to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Texans vs Patriots Odds
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 +100 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -120 | 40.5 -110o / -110u | -180 |
Texans vs Patriots NFL Divisional Round Preview
The Patriots were my pick as the best value to win the Super Bowl before the NFL Playoffs began, but there are concerns that are difficult to ignore heading into their matchup with the Texans.
On the surface, Drake Maye’s performance in his first playoff start looks very good when glancing at the box score. Maye accounted for 334 total yards and led his team to crucial points in the second half to secure a victory.
However, the Chargers represented the toughest test for the Patriots' offense thus far this entire season, and Maye’s success rate decreased accordingly. Maye had a success rate of just 42%, his lowest since early November.
The Patriots converted just 36% of their 3rd downs last week against Los Angeles, and in their only loss since September at the hands of the Bills, Maye averaged just six yards per attempt and moved the chains through the air just six times the entire 60 minutes.
It may sound as if I am cherry-picking statistics to find a flaw in the Patriots, but given the lack of competition they faced during the regular season, we must put the games in which they were challenged in context. Make no mistake, this game against the Texans will present a stiffer test than they have previously had to endure to date.
The New England offensive line did not play well last week, and it is fair to project a struggle up front for the Patriots again, given the lack of defensive pressure they have had to navigate throughout the regular season. Maye was sacked five times a week ago, resulting in a worrisome 14.3% sack rate.
Left tackle Will Campbell was playing in just his second game since returning from injury, and his 64 snaps played were his most since Week 11.
Campbell allowed one sack and five pressures, his most in any game during his rookie season. He wasn’t the only lineman that struggled in pass protection, as left guard Jared Wilson surrendered two sacks and six pressures versus the Chargers, a pass rush not quite as daunting as the one they will see today.
The headliners for the Texans' defense are Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, but their presence is already factored into the handicap. It has been the play of Houston’s two interior defenders that will make the difference in this matchup.
Defensive tackle Tommy Togiai played just 32 snaps last week in Pittsburgh and had 17 pass-rush opportunities, yet he generated three solo tackles, two run stops and two pressures. Togiai’s playing time has increased over the last six weeks due to his effectiveness and he is coming off his two best games, as he also accounted for three pressures in Week 18 against Indianapolis.
The other consistent force for the Texans' front has been defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins. He also happens to be peaking at the right time with eight pressures in his last three games, culminating in two sacks of Aaron Rodgers this past Monday.
Texans vs Patriots Prediction, Betting Analysis
I’ve always looked to the trenches first as a handicapper, as I know that is ultimately where the game is won and lost.
There is reason to believe the Texans can win the line of scrimmage in this game, and the oddsmakers’ total indicates points will certainly be at a premium when these two red-hot teams square off.
Nico Collins is a significant loss for the Houston offense, but C.J. Stroud was highly efficient last week after he left the game. Stroud’s two fumbles in the entire regular season lead me to believe ball security is not an issue to project moving forward.
Limiting mistakes will be key, as I expect the Houston defense to make its statement as the Texans advance to the AFC Championship on the back of a unit that has not allowed a single team to score more than 21 points since Week 10.
Pick: Texans +3
Spread
I've laid out above why I think the Texans cover the spread.
Moneyline
While I'm on the Texans spread, I'm shying away from the moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no pick for the game total.
