The Houston Texans (4-5) and Tennessee Titans (1-8) meet in Week 11 on Sunday, Nov. 16. Kickoff is set for in 1:00 p.m. ET from Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn. The game will broadcast on FOX.
The Texans are favored by -6 on the spread over the Titans (Texans -6); the over/under is set at 37 total points. The Texans are -280 moneyline favorites and the underdog Titans are +230.
Let's get into my Week 11 preview and Texans vs Titans prediction for today's AFC South rivalry game.
Texans vs Titans Prediction
- Texans vs Titans pick: Under 37.5
My Texans vs Titans best bet is the game total under 37.5. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Texans vs Titans Odds
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 37 -110o / -110u | -280 |
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 37 -110o / -110u | +230 |
Texans vs Titans Week 11 Preview
The Texans are having a remarkable defensive season. Some people may glance at the box score from a week ago and see the Jaguars put up 29 points, but in reality, Jacksonville managed to gain just 3.9 yards per play.
The game may have come down to the wire, but the Texans gained nearly 200 more total yards than the Jaguars.
No defense in the league has a better combination of pass rush and secondary play. Looking at adjusted net yards per attempt — a metric that measures passing defense but factors in passing touchdowns yielded along with sack yardage — the Texans have limited opponents to an incredible 4.2 yards per pass. For context, the league median in this metric is above six yards per attempt allowed.
When these teams met in Week 4, the Texans shut out the Titans. Tennessee mustered just 175 yards on offense with 10 first downs gained. The Titans converted just 18% of their third downs in that game.
It’s very difficult to envision the Titans generating much more output in the rematch today considering they have scored a touchdown on fewer than 10% of their possessions this season; for context, the league average is 24%.
With all of that data in hand, as well as a 26-0 result in the not too distant past, the Texans are modest six-point favorites in this game with the line moving in the direction of the home underdog.
The oddsmakers aren’t convinced Davis Mills, who's set to make another start for the injured C.J. Stroud, can replicate his fourth quarter from a week ago — and neither am I.
Mills has completed just 58% of his passes this season at 5.7 yards per attempt. Mills is just below his counterpart, Cam Ward, and below the likes of Cooper Rush on a per-attempt basis — 26.6% of Mills' passes have been deemed off-target, the highest in the league out of all quarterbacks with more than 10 pass attempts.
Pace is the last factor that leads me to believe a play on the under is a value.
Houston’s opponents average the fifth-fewest plays per game and the Titans will be happy to oblige them. Tennessee operates at the league’s slowest neutral pace over expectation.
Exposing Ward to the Texans’ pass rush will be avoided at all costs here. I expect the Titans to do everything they can to get their ground game going coming off of their bye week.
Texans vs Titans Prediction, Betting Analysis
Texans games are 6-3 to the under this season, with just one opponent reaching 20 points against them this season.
I also expect the Houston offense to revert back to the mean — something similar to the 3.7 yards per play it averaged just two weeks ago on offense.
I love playing this under at the key number of 37 or less.
Pick: Under 37.5
Spread
I have no play for either side of the spread.
Moneyline
I'm also shying away from the moneyline in this game.
Over/Under
I think this will be a low-scoring game and I'm taking the under.
Texans vs Titans Betting Trends
Texans vs Titans Weather
