Jaguars vs Colts Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 1

Jaguars vs. Colts odds have the reigning AFC South champions as strong favorites in this matchup of divisional rivals foes.

Oddsmakers have pretty much penciled in the Jaguars to win the AFC South at around -150 to repeat as division champions. In Week 1, Jacksonville has the opportunity to live up to those expectations in a matchup against the potentially underwhelming Colts.

Let's break down the matchup and make our Jaguars vs. Colts pick below.

The Jaguars were last year’s Cinderella story as a late 6-1 run in the regular season vaulted them into the playoffs. They followed their late-season heroics with a 27-point comeback in the playoffs before the Chiefs defeated them in the Divisional Round. The story can be very different as you transition from the hunter to the hunted, however.

Jacksonville is building a juggernaut of an offense. After adding its top three targets last offseason, Jacksonville made a splash by bringing in Calvin Ridley. The last time we saw Ridley play an entire season he was an All-Pro second-teamer with 1374 yards and nine touchdowns. If Ridley can return to those levels he will give this offense the only thing it's been missing, a true number-one on the outside. 

The only worry for Jacksonville is the defense. The Jaguars ranked 17th in points per drive allowed and 26th in yards per drive allowed. They did make up for their shortcomings by forcing the fifth-most turnovers but that is a very volatile metric year to year. The only thing potentially standing in Jacksonville’s way of the AFC’s top seed is their defense being incapable of being top-16 instead of bottom-16.

The Colts went into a straight tailspin last year as everything fell apart. They would even go on to name ESPN analyst, Jeff Saturday, as interim head coach because of the disaster surrounding the team.

One offseason later, they scored one of the top young coaches in Shane Steichen and paired him with a quarterback perfect for his system in Anthony Richardson. Richardson is raw and will have lots of growing pains, but the 20-year-old has shown great maturity for his age. He has even been named captain despite being a rookie. All these signs are excellent for the future. However, it means little as we evaluate Week 1.

While the offense needed and received an overhaul, the Colts' defense played at a respectable level. They ranked 28th in points allowed but 15th in yards allowed. The main reason for the discrepancy here was their league leaving 34 turnovers committed. While a raw rookie quarterback will not be great from a turnover standpoint, anything should be better. If the offense doesn’t put the defense in the wrong positions regularly, Indy should see a significant improvement in points allowed.

Despite being 3-7 halfway through last season, the Jaguars are being regarded as one of the top teams in the AFC. This may make me a fool but I am tailing this hype 100%. The offense showed vast improvement as the year went on and has now added Calvin Ridley as a matchup nightmare on the outside. Another year of development and understanding of coach Doug Pederson’s system should be a key driver to improvement. 

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As for the Colts, it is hard to imagine Week 1 looking much different from last year. Yes, much has changed, but the rawness of quarterback Anthony Richardson will make the beginning of the year a rough ride. This should just be exacerbated against an aggressive and opportunistic defense like Jacksonville.

This is an AFC leader against a team searching for an identity. Lay the points and trust the Jags to live up to the off-season hype.