Jets vs. Patriots, Lions vs. Giants NFL Predictions: Inefficient Line Due to Low Total (Sunday, Nov. 20)
Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images. Pictured: Robert Saleh, Zach Wilson.
Three NFL games that kickoff at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday fit a historically profitable betting algorithm developed by the Action Network.
The algorithm has gone 241-149-10 (62%) since 2005. That's over 400 NFL games over a very lengthy sample size. $100 per game bettors would have netted about $8,500 over that time frame.
That's an annualized 11% ROI over a very lengthy timeframe.
These are the games that fit the parameters of this betting system:
- Jets vs. Patriots
- Lions vs. Giants
- Bears vs. Falcons
Under specific parameters proprietary to the Action Network, certain types of teams under certain types of scenarios have done fantastic against the spread (ATS) over a long sample size. The algorithm aligns with all facets of today's three contests.
Some of the algorithm's factors include time of season, how low a total is, spread range and how the opposing team did last season.
We don't recommend using this betting algorithm as an alternative to investing — variance is much less forgiving in sports gambling compared to the financial markets — but similar principles apply in regard to profits over a long time horizon.
Jets vs. Patriots, Lions vs. Giants Inefficient Line Prediction
The betting system targets bets on small road underdogs that were horrible last season. A total of 50 or lower is required.
The game needs to be played on Sunday or Monday in order to eliminate Thursday Night Football, which has more variance due to the short rest time.
“Horrible last season” means six wins or fewer. “Small road underdog” indicates the team’s spread is between +0.5 and +6.5.
All of those parameters fit the road team on Sunday.
The Jets' best market price is with PointsBet at +3.5 (-107). The Lions' best market-best price with Circa at +3.5 (-130). And the Bears' best spread is with Tipico at +4 (-113).
Do keep in mind that this historically profitable algorithm applies to about 25 NFL games per year. This might be an opportunity to cash in, but keep in mind that this is a long-term investment.
The best way to make money through this algorithm is to bet on every game that fits these parameters for the rest of the year.
We'll continue to write about them.
PRO Picks: Jets +3.5 (-107) or better | Lions +3.5 (-130) or better | Bears +4 (-113) or better