Joe Burrow Injury: How Update Affects Rams vs. Bengals MNF Odds

Rams vs. Bengals Odds

Joe Burrow is on track to play on Monday through his calf ailment and the odds for Rams vs. Bengals on Monday Night Football.

When it didn't look promising that Burrow would suit up earlier this week, the number hung at Rams +1.5 or +2. That line has calcified at a +3 mark a few hours before the game.

Who would've thought preseason that this game would be a pick 'em on a neutral field?

It's a testament to how poorly the Bengals — but in particular Burrow — are playing. Heading into this week, he was fourth from out of all starting quarterbacks in Expected Points Added + Completion Percentage Over Expected, a ranking metric for all QBs and a typical predictor for the NFL MVP market.

It's why sharps across the country hammered this line down from its opening line of Rams +7.5. Over the span of a few hours last Monday, that line fell to as far as +1.5 — partly on account of Burrow's injury aggravation, and partly on account of the Bengals' foibles.

And overall it may be a fair assessment. Burrow hasn't looked 100% at all this season for a team that ranks in the bottom four in offensive and defensive EPA per play. And the calf injury he suffered, Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers did too, during the preseason — a precursor to his Achilles tear four snaps into the regular season. The calf and Achilles are irrevocably tied.

Meanwhile, the Rams offense has surprised to a top-10mark through the start of the season on account of rookie Puka Nacua and a rejuvenated Matt Stafford.

For what it's worth, roughly 62% of the American betting public is on the Rams spread in some capacity — so perhaps it's not just the sharps that are low on Cincy, either.