Josh Jacobs Prop Pick: Where to Find Value on His Season-Long Scrimmage Yards
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Jacobs
Josh Jacobs Prop Pick for 2020
- Under 1,650.5 Scrimmage Yards [Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]
Josh Jacobs had high expectations heading into his rookie season, and he did not disappoint.
The first-round pick rushed 242 times for 1,150 yards despite playing through a shoulder injury toward the end of the season. He ended up missing three of the final four games due to the injury, but should be 100% for 2020.
Although we can expect his rate of 4.75 yards per carry to regress toward league average next year, it’s safe to assume as a first-round talent entering his age 22 season, he isn’t a league-average back. I’m projecting him for 18.5 carries a game at 4.55 yards per rush, which if you multiply those by 14.5 games played, it comes out to 1,221 rushing yards — enough to place him within my top-five running backs in terms of projected rushing yards.
We’re likely getting the most value in this market through Jacob’s limited involvement in the passing game. While we all might disagree with the Raiders limiting his passing down work, making projections based on what we think should occur is much different than projecting what is likely to occur. Having said that, it is very likely the Raiders continue to use Jalen Richard heavily on passing downs, limiting Jacobs’ receiving upside.
The loss of DeAndre Washington to free agency should boost the projected targets for both Jacobs and Richard. I’m also expecting Jacobs’ routes run on passing plays to shoot up to the 40% range with Richard closer to 50%. This is the main factor behind my projected 2.3 receptions per game for Jacobs, who averaged only 1.5 per game last year.
So overall, I’m projecting Jacobs to finish with 1,487 scrimmage yards.
If Jacobs were to play all 16 games at 100% health, or Richard were to miss significant time, this could be a losing bet. However, with my raw projection being 150-200 yards lower than the prop line and the possibility of Jacobs missing time or running into any other hurdles, I’m giving this a 60-65% chance of cashing.