Justin Fields Now the Favorite To Be No. 3 Pick In 2021 NFL Draft

Justin Fields Now the Favorite To Be No. 3 Pick In 2021 NFL Draft article feature image
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Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Fields.

No. 3 Pick Odds

QB Odds Implied Prob.
Justin Fields -125 55.6%
Mac Jones +120 45.5%
Trey Lance +350 22.2%
Odds as of April 15 and via DraftKings. Convert odds into implied probabilities using our Betting Odds Calculator.
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Odds to be the No. 3 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft continue to change.

Immediately after the 49ers traded up to the third overall pick on March 26, quarterbacks Justin Fields and Trey Lance emerged as -150 and -125 betting favorites — odds that gave Fields a 60% implied probability and Lance a 55.6% implied probability to be the Niners’ first selection.

A lot has changed over the past 20 days.

Mac Jones leapfrogged Fields and Lance on the oddsboard as the new favorite to be the No. 3 pick on March 29 — the day before Alabama’s second pro day. At +140 odds, Jones’ 41.7% implied probability gave him an edge over Fields (+160/38.5%) and Lance (+175/36.4%) on the board.

Then, less than 24 hours later, Fields and Lance supplanted Jones.

With Jones’ throws at Alabama’s second pro day drawing criticism for inaccuracy, Fields and Lance improved to +150 odds, giving them each a 40% implied probability to be the third overall pick.

Fast-forward 15 days and Fields has created notable separation from both Jones and Lance atop the oddsboard for the No. 3 pick.

The former Ohio State quarterback threw in front of 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan at the Buckeyes’ second pro day on April 14. Now Fields is a -125 favorite to be the third overall pick — that means bettors would now have to risk $125 in order to net a $100 profit if Fields is indeed San Francisco’s pick at that spot.

Here’s a quick snapshot of how odds to be the No. 3 have evolved among this trio of quarterbacks:

QB 3/29 3/30 4/15
Justin Fields +160 +150 -125
Mac Jones +140 +175 +120
Trey Lance +175 +150 +350
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