How Mac Jones’ & Justin Fields’ Pro Days Shifted 2021 NFL Draft Odds

How Mac Jones’ & Justin Fields’ Pro Days Shifted 2021 NFL Draft Odds article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictured: Trey Lance, Mac Jones, Justin Fields

What a difference a day makes.

Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Mac Jones is no longer the betting favorite to be the No. 3 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

The pick is currently held by the 49ers after trading up with the Miami Dolphins on March 26.

Jones’ odds decreased from +140 to +175 — a 41.67% to 36.36% change in implied probability — while North Dakota State’s Trey Lance and Ohio State’s Justin Fields have moved into the favorites spot at +150 (40%) from +175 (36.36%) and +160 (38.46%), respectively, on DraftKings Sportsbook.

QB Before After
Mac Jones +140 +175
Justin Fields +160 +150
Trey Lance +175 +150

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The odds shifted on Tuesday in the midst of Ohio State’s Pro Day and Alabama’s second Pro Day. Jones, 22, initially received high marks on Alabama’s first Pro Day held on March 23. He measured 6-foot-2.5, 217 pounds, recorded two 40-yard-dash times of 4.72 and 4.68 seconds and threw around 50 passes in front of representatives from multiple teams — none of which raised alarm bells.

Alabama’s other top prospects — receivers Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle and running back Najee Harris — did not participate in the school’s first Pro Day on March 23.

Jones’ throws on Tuesday, however, drew criticism for inaccuracy, at one point hitting the ceiling on a lofty overthrow. He ended the day with a trick play and reeled in a touchdown pass thrown by Harris.

Fields, meanwhile, turned heads at Ohio State’s contemporaneous Pro Day. The 22-year-old Buckeye clocked a speedy 4.44-second 40-yard-dash — the fastest 40 time recorded by a quarterback since 2012 No. 2 overall pick Robert Griffin III. Fields’ throws were also lauded as clean and accurate.

Lance also received high praise at North Dakota’s Pro Day on March 12.

Many members of the media have noted Jones’ potential scheme fit with San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan’s system. Shanahan attended the Pro Day in Tuscaloosa, though the 49ers’ rumored interest could have been pre-draft misdirection.

Fields’ rising stock combined with a concerning performance from Jones have been enough to move the needle betting-wise over the last day. Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and BYU’s Zach Wilson remain the favorites to go first (-10000) and second overall (-500) to the Jaguars and Jets, respectively.

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