Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler NFL Player Props Odds, Picks & Predictions: 2 Chargers Have Most Popular Bets for Do-or-Die Game vs. Raiders

Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler NFL Player Props Odds, Picks & Predictions: 2 Chargers Have Most Popular Bets for Do-or-Die Game vs. Raiders article feature image

Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images. Pictured: Chargers RB Austin Ekeler

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds

Chargers Odds-3 (-105)
Raiders Odds+3 (-115)
Over/Under49 (o-105/u-115)
Time8:20 p.m. ET
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Win-or-go-home. It's a classic Sunday Night Football tradition during the last week of the regular season, and we're going to be treated to it again tonight.

The winner of this contest will nab a wild card spot. The Chargers would most likely play the Chiefs in the Wild Card Round, while the Raiders would in all likelihood travel to Buffalo.

There is a scenario where if the Colts lose, the Chargers and Raiders could tie, and both would qualify for the postseason. However, both teams have said that they would still play for the win.

Regardless, what will effectively be the first playoff game of the winter will kickoff at 8:20 p.m. ET tonight.

The sharps are hammering the Chargers' spread as about 86% of the money is on Los Angeles to cover, and two of our top NFL experts agree with that sentiment.

That jibes with the advanced analytics, which regard Los Angeles as the far superior side in almost every metric. The Chargers are the No. 3 offense in the NFL according to DVOA and No. 6 according to EPA per play. Meanwhile, the Raiders are No. 19 and No. 20 in those two measures, respectively.

Overall, DVOA regards the Chargers as the No. 11 team in football while the Raiders are a below-average 21st. EPA regards the Chargers as roughly the 12th-best team in football, with the Raiders hovering in the 20s.

You can read more about what the wise guys are betting on for this contest at this link below.

The public is also hammering these prop bets for this do-or-die matchup.

Chargers vs. Raiders Most Popular Player Props

  1. Austin Ekeler to score a touchdown at any time (-125)
  2. Justin Herbert to record more than 1.5 touchdown passes (-200)
  3. Austin Ekeler to rush for more than 55.5 yards (-125)

Odds and data are according to PointsBet.

Interestingly, two of the three most popular prop bets for this contest are pitted against the Raiders' run defense, which is their best asset.

The Raiders aren't a good pass defense, ranked sixth-worst in the NFL, but they're ninth in the NFL against the run.

Still, bettors are confident Austin Ekeler pops off, and for good reason.

Ekeler has scored a touchdown in 12 of 15 games this season, including each of his last seven. That implies those odds should be somewhere closer to -400. But, touchdown props are more variable, and it makes sense that you're getting better value than that here.

Still, Ekeler at -125 is a roughly 69% discount from the implied odds on this line. It's absolutely worth a sizable bet. A 9% edge is an A grade in our model. This is about eight-times an A grade.

The second-most wagered on prop is harder to handicap. Herbert has thrown for at least two touchdown passes in 11 out of 16 games this season, which implies the odds of it happening should be closer to -220.

At -200, I don't think there's enough value there, though the edge here isn't horrible.

As far as Ekeler's rushing yard prop goes, I'd just stick with his touchdown bet. He's only rushed for 56 or more yards in nine out of 15 games this season, and while that still provides value, there's a legitimately exorbitant amount of expected value on his TD bet.

Pick: Austin Ekeler to score a touchdown (-125).

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