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Chiefs vs Texans Odds and Pick | Week 15 NFL Betting Predictions

Chiefs vs Texans Odds and Pick | Week 15 NFL Betting Predictions article feature image
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Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images. Pictured: Travis Kelce (left), Patrick Mahomes (right).

  • Chiefs vs Texans odds position Kansas City as a two-touchdown favorite in Houston.
  • The Texans almost upset the Cowboys last week, but can they hang with another juggernaut?
  • Our analyst makes his Chiefs vs Texans pick and prediction based on the odds.

Chiefs vs. Texans Odds

Sunday, Dec. 18
1 p.m. ET
CBS
Chiefs Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-110
48.5
-1150
Texans Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-110
48.5
+730
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Despite losing 27-24, you could argue the Texans played their best game of the season last week against the Cowboys.

The Texans held the Cowboys under their team total while forcing a fumble and intercepting Dak Prescott twice. Houston actually nearly iced the game with a touchdown while leading 23-20 in the fourth quarter, but Jeff Driskel got stuffed at the 1-yard line to keep the score within three points.

You know the rest: The Cowboys marched right on down the field for the game-winning touchdown, and the Texans’ valiant effort was for naught. The fact remains, however, that this Texans team plays extremely hard for Lovie Smith (despite being arguably the least-talented team in the NFL).

The Chiefs, on the other hand, continued their dominance by waltzing into Denver and dropping 34 points on a Broncos defense that ranks fifth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA.

Kansas City ranks second in points per game while Houston ranks 26th in points per game allowed. This does not bode well for the Texans.

Chiefs vs. Texans Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Chiefs and Texans match up statistically:

Chiefs vs. Texans DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 1 20
Pass DVOA 2 17
Rush DVOA 11 27
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 31 25
Pass DVOA 31 25
Rush DVOA 32 20

We know how the Chiefs want to beat you: by throwing the football down your throat.

They rank No. 1 in Pass Rate Over Expectation and fifth in overall Pass Play Rate, per Establish the Run, but that Pass Play Rate number has actually come down since Isiah Pacheco took over lead running back duties from Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The rookie has played really well, averaging 4.7 or more yards per carry in four of his past five games.


Bet Kansas City vs. Houston at FanDuel


Kansas City has a really nice 1-2 punch with Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon, whom they use mainly on third and/or passing downs.

Despite having the best quarterback on the planet, the Chiefs have run the ball quite well, which has been a nice change of pace compared to years past. They sit 11th in Rush Offense DVOA and 12th in yards per carry.

The most obvious way to move the ball on the Texans is on the ground, as they rank 27th in Rush Defense DVOA and yards per carry allowed — the “issue” is that they also sit 30th in yards per pass attempt allowed, despite facing the league’s fourth-fewest pass attempts.

To add fuel to the fire, it’s possible the Chiefs welcome wide receiver Kadarius Toney back after missing the past three weeks with a hamstring injury. The Texans, on the other hand, are pretty banged up — especially on offense, with Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins out again this week.

The Kyle Allen experiment has also come to an end, with the Texans returning to Davis Mills last week (while mixing in Driskel for six pass attempts and seven rushes as well for some inexplicable reason).

Betting Picks

Despite being bereft of talent, the Texans are 5-7-1 against the spread (ATS), which isn’t as bad as some would have expected. The Chiefs sit 4-8-1 in that department, which does not inspire a ton of confidence.

The obvious way to play this game is to assume both teams put up points. We know the Chiefs are going to score and likely hit 30+, but if they build a huge lead, there could be quite a bit of garbage time for the Texans to take advantage of and push this game over 50 points.

Despite being down to second- and third-stringers at wide receiver, Houston could absolutely have some success through the air against a Kansas City defense that ranks 25th against the pass in DVOA.

This has the feel of a 33-20 game. I love the over here.


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