Lamar Jackson Says the Ravens Prefer Being Underdogs. He’s Right.
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- Lamar Jackson said he loves being the underdog. Given his career record as one, his intuition is right.
- Jackson is historically good against the spread and straight up as an underdog throughout his career.
- Read into the data below.
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are well aware that they're 5.5-point road underdogs for their tilt against the 49ers on Christmas Day.
That's despite being the No. 2 team in the NFL, according to DVOA. Of course, it's the Ravens' opponents that head into this titanic matchup as the No. 1 team in the NFL, according to the advanced metrics.
And yet, being big-time underdogs in this potential Super Bowl preview is exactly how Jackson would've drawn it up.
“I don't want them to pick us," Jackson told reporters this week. "I like being the underdog. I believe we play better when we're doubted and people aren't choosing us to win the game.”
The former MVP is right, actually. The Ravens are 19-5 against the spread (79%) as an underdog during the Lamar Jackson era (since 2018), the second-most profitable franchise in the NFL over that timeframe, just behind the Steelers.
With Jackson starting at quarterback, the Ravens are 11-2 ATS as underdogs and 8-5 straight up — an absurd 61.5% win rate at plus-money odds. ATS bettors would have made $800 by tailing every Ravens underdog spread at $100 per game.
Moneyline bettors would be up $617 if they had bet the Ravens at $100 to win every contest.
The last time Jackson and the Ravens were underdogs? Against the Bengals on the road during Week 2 of this season, when the Ravens closed as +144 dogs. Baltimore won the game 27-24.
If the Ravens close as +5.5 dogs, it'll be the second-longest odds Baltimore has faced throughout Jackson's career. In 80 total starts, the Ravens have only been bigger underdogs once — vs. the Chiefs in 2018. The Ravens lost that game 27-24, but covered as 6.5-point underdogs.
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