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Najee Harris Player Props: Expert Pick for Steelers vs Colts

Najee Harris Player Props: Expert Pick for Steelers vs Colts article feature image
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Photo by Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Najee Harris.

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Najee Harris Receptions

Prop Najee Harris Over 2.5 Receptions (-155)
Matchup Steelers vs. Colts
Day, Time Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
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NFL Week 12 concludes in Lucas Oil Stadium, where the Colts host the Steelers.

Rookie standout Jaylen Warren will miss tonight’s game after suffering a hamstring injury in Week 11, and Najee Harris needs to step up in his absence. Against a stout Colts rushing defense — they permit the fourth-lowest yards per carry and rank sixth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA vs. the run — I’m targeting receiving props over rushing ones in this matchup.

In the five-game sample size before Week 11 under Kenny Pickett, operating in a split-backfield, there was a 57/43 share between Harris and Warren in average routes run per game.

After Warren’s injury, Harris’ routes skyrocketed as he ran a season-high 37 on 44 dropbacks. According to Nathan Jahnke of PFF, Harris also was featured in 13 out of 15 third-down snaps and all 15 two-minute drill snaps.

This season, the Colts have allowed 5.73 receptions per game (sixth most) and have allowed a running back to notch at least four in nine of 11 contests. They also rank 26th in DVOA vs. the pass against the position, which bodes well for this prop.

We got a preview of what a fully utilized Harris looks like without competition in the backfield, and I expect this to continue. Three catches should be easily achievable and I would take this up to -170.

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