The Patriots will take on the Texans in NFL Divisional Round action. Kickoff is set for 3:00 p.m. EST at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN. Here's everything you need to know about Patriots vs. Texans odds, the latest NFL spreads, NFL over/unders, and more.
The Patriots opened as a -3.5 point favorite over the Texans and are favored at 63 cents to win. Meanwhile, the Texans are priced at 38 cents on Fanatics Markets to pull off the upset. The total is set at over/under 41.5 total points scored.
Patriots vs Texans Prediction
My Patriots vs Texans Pick: Patriots to Win (63 cents)
My Texans vs. Patriots best bet is on the Patriots to win at 63 cents.
Patriots vs. Texans Odds
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Patriots vs. Texans Betting Preview
New England Patriots
The Patriots started the season 1-2 before going on one of the league's most impressive runs to end the season, winning 13 of their final 14 regular-season games (with only a four-point loss to the Buffalo Bills).
New England carried that momentum, especially on the defensive end, into the first round of the postseason as the Patriots held the Los Angeles Chargers to 3.5 yards per play and 1-for-10 on third down in a dominant 16-3 victory.
Unfortunately, the Patriots' offensive performance was nothing to write home about. New England turned the ball over twice, went 0-for-3 in the red zone, and relied on a 28-yard touchdown pass to Hunter Henry to scrape across enough production for a comfortable win.
The good news for the Patriots is that they were able to move the ball at will against Los Angeles, ending the game with 381 total yards, compared to the Chargers' 207.
New England had a 93-yard drive that ended in a field goal from the five-yard line, a 64-yard drive that ended in a field goal, and a 58-yard drive that ended in a fumble.
Overall, the Patriots had to settle for three field goals, but could have made this game much more of a blowout if they had been able to convert those long drives into touchdowns.
New England will have far fewer opportunities to score against a dominant Houston defense, but if the Patriots can flip the script from last week and capitalize on their chances, their defense (which ranked fourth in the league in points allowed in the regular season) should play well enough to give them a strong opportunity to win.
Houston Texans
On the other hand, the Texans ended the regular season with the longest win streak in the NFL (nine games) and defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-6 on the road to open the postseason.
Houston dominated Pittsburgh in that matchup as the Steelers averaged just 3.1 yards per play, including a paltry 2.9 yards per pass play. The Texans doubled up the Steelers through the air and on the ground, and won the total yardage battle 408 to 175. They were also much more efficient on the most important downs, going 10-for-15 on third down, while Pittsburgh went 2-for-14.
However, that level of dominance hasn't been consistent throughout the season. Houston has consistently been able to win close games in the second half of the season, and has been led by the NFL's second-best scoring defense as the Texans are allowing just 17.4 points per game this season.
Houston was +17 in turnover margin in the regular season, a mark only surpassed by the Chicago Bears (+22), but lost the turnover battle 3-2 against Pittsburgh. Cleaning up the turnovers will be a major key for the Texans if they hope to win on the road again in the Divisional round.
Patriots vs. Texans Pick
Both teams are red hot, winning a combined 24 of their past 25 games.
While I think this will be a very low-scoring game, the over/under is set at just 41.5 points, an extremely risky number to wager on. Just two of the seven playoff games so far have gone under that number, and although those games involved Houston and New England, the low totals came from both teams completely stifling their opponents, not from a lack of offense from the winning sides.
The Patriots and Texans are both comfortable relying on their defenses and playing low-possession games, and because the Texans tended to play in close games — they played 12 regular-season games with a margin of victory of one possession — picking the Patriots to cover in a low-scoring affair is arguably even more risky than betting the under on a very low point total.
The Texans end up in a lot of close games, but the Patriots have the better quarterback, coach, and home-field advantage, which leads me to pick the Patriots to win straight up, despite the heightened price on that bet.
My Pick: Patriots Moneyline at 63 cents
