Saints-Giants Betting Preview: Should You Buy Brees & Co. After Big Win?
Credit: USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Drew Brees, Eli Manning
Betting odds: New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
- Spread: Saints -3.5
- Over/Under: 50.5
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- TV channel: CBS
>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets
Betting market: This game is similar to the Seahawks-Cardinals game, as it appears that the hook is everything.
There have been several sharp indicators coming in on the Giants at +4 and +3.5, but Saints bettors have bought it back on the instances when it’s gotten down to -3. (You can find live data here.)
Nobody has shied away from the over, as a large majority of bets and dollars has moved it from 49 to 50.5. — Mark Gallant
Trend to know: Since 2003, in regular-season games played outdoors, Drew Brees is 59-42-5 (58%) against the spread. — John Ewing
Did you know? The Giants have been listed as a home underdog in eight consecutive games started by Eli Manning (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS), the longest such streak of his career. — Evan Abrams
DFS edge: Michael Thomas has converted 129 receptions into 1,538 yards and eight touchdowns over his past 16 games (including playoffs). Thomas has more touchdowns (three) than incomplete passes (two) on 40 targets this season.
A mere mortal is hardly capable of slowing down Thomas at this point, let alone the artist formerly known as Janoris Jenkins, who ranks outside of PFF’s top 50 cornerbacks this season.
Thomas has historically thrived away from the Superdome, averaging an additional 2.0 DraftKings PPG with a +6.6 Plus/Minus and a 68% Consistency Rating on the road during his career, per our FantasyLabs Trends tool.
He has the highest projections among receivers in our Models.
Odell Beckham Jr. has gained 100-plus yards in two of three games this season, but has also failed to find the end zone and is presently averaging a career-low 11.3 yards per reception.
Beckham is one of the league’s few wide receivers with 200-plus yard performances in his weekly range of outcomes, so it’d be wise to not sweat his recent “cold” streak.
The Saints’ defense ranks last in nearly every conceivable total or pass defense metric.
Marshon Lattimore is expected to shadow Beckham; Lattimore has allowed the fourth-highest quarterback rating on passes into his coverage among 78 full-time cornerbacks this season. — Ian Hartitz
>> Check out Sports Insights’ Bet Signals to track sharp action for the NFL’s Week 4 slate.
Injury watch: The Saints will likely be without linebacker Manti Te’o (knee) for at least another week, while defensive tackle Tyeler Davison (foot) and defensive end Marcus Davenport (hip) are questionable.
Tight end Evan Engram (knee) could miss multiple games for the Giants, while starting cornerback Eli Apple (groin), defensive end Olivier Vernon (ankle), and defensive end Connor Barwin (knee) might not suit up.
Defensive tackle Damon Harrison (knee) and Jonathan Stewart (foot) aren’t thought to be dealing with serious injuries, but wide receiver Cody Latimer (knee) seems to be at risk of missing Sunday’s game.
Bet To Watch: Giants +3.5
Yes, the Saints are 2-1, but they were a play or two away from losing to the Browns at home and at Atlanta the past two weeks.
The Saints ranks 31st and 32nd against No. 1 and No. 2 receivers, respectively — and they just lost their slot cornerback for the year.
New Orleans also ranks 30th in pass defense against running backs.
The Saints have had better luck defending tight ends, but Engram is out, and I expect the Giants to go three-wide with tight end Rhett Ellison predominantly helping with Saints pass-rusher Cameron Jordan, who should have an advantage off the edge.
The Giants should move the ball with ease through the air against a secondary in shambles. I don’t foresee a heavy Giants rushing attack, given their offensive line issues and the Saints’ run defense, which leads the NFL in yards per rush (3.0).
Manning and the Giants should be the look as a home dog against a Saints team that just isn’t right at the moment. — Stuckey
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.