The New Orleans Saints (1-5) and Chicago Bears (3-2) will face off in NFL Week 7. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Bears are 4.5-point favorites over the Saints on the spread (Bears -4.5), with the over/under set at 46.5 total points. Chicago is a -245 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while New Orleans is +200 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Saints vs Bears predictions for Week 7.
Saints vs Bears Prediction
- Saints vs Bears pick: Saints +5 (-115)
My Bears vs. Saints best bet is on New Orleans to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Saints vs Bears Odds
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -245 |
Saints vs Bears NFL Week 7 Preview
The Bears came through with a cover in their latest matchup, but I think this is a good spot to fade them.
The Bears are starting to talk a little bit. They are getting all mad at the public commentators because they’re on a little win streak and riding high. Now, they’re facing a one-win Saints team, and I think they’re going to be a little overconfident in this spot.
It’s also a shorter week for Chicago; still a new coaching staff, and there’s some familiarity on both sides with Dennis Allen. But the real focus here is on the quarterbacks and how both teams have evolved the last few weeks.
A couple of weeks ago, I was saying Spencer Rattler turns the ball over too much, and that's never really been a winning formula for anybody. But he’s gotten a lot better in that department over the last three weeks.
The Saints are doing some smart things offensively, which you’d expect under Kellen Moore.
One key thing they’ve done is cut back on Brandin Cooks’ snaps. He doesn’t have a single target or catch versus man coverage this year, and that’s been hurting Rattler’s efficiency against man — something the Bears' defense plays at one of the highest rates in the league.
Rattler’s recent improvement has been real. He ranks 11th in PFF grade among all quarterbacks for the season now.
In the first three weeks, Rattler had four big-time throws and eight turnover-worthy plays. Over the last three games, he’s flipped that, with five big-time throws and just one turnover-worthy throw, which came back in Week 4.
In his last two games, Rattler has thrown nearly 60 passes without a single turnover-worthy play. His yards per attempt are up, and everything’s starting to round into shape.
The rest of the Saints' offense is trending upward in general too. They’re getting Taysom Hill back, they’ve got Rashid Shaheed, Chris Olave, and if you take Cooks out and put in another tight end — like Foster Moreau, who’s back — that gives them more balance.
The Saints' defense isn’t great, but it’s not bad either.
The Saints actually generate pressure at a higher rate than you’d think, ranked 10th in the league at 22.3%, according to Pro Football Reference.
That’s important because Caleb Williams has somewhat lucked out at times. He’s getting better — he’s cut his sack rate in half — but his off-target rate is still way too high.
Against pressure, Williams is averaging just 4.8 yards per attempt, and while he’s much more effective from a clean pocket, the Saints aren’t allowing many of those lately. They’re generating pressure without blitzing heavily, which is key.
When blitzed, Williams has been excellent — six touchdowns, no picks, and 8.5 yards per attempt. But when he’s pressured without a blitz, he’s thrown one touchdown, one interception, three turnover-worthy passes, and averaged 4.8 yards per attempt.
The Saints have the recipe keep this game close. They’re also one of the top-rated teams in our luck rankings, and historically, this has been a profitable type of spot — graded as a “B” side with over a 57% cover rate in similar situations over the last five years.
Saints vs Bears Prediction, Betting Analysis
This just feels like the right time to fade the Bears. They’re on a little win streak, but look at how it’s all come together.
The Bears beat the Raiders by one point and needed a special teams play late to pull that one out by a score of 25-24. Then, they followed it up with another one-point win against the Commanders by a score of 25-24, narrowly escaping with victories in back-to-back games.
You almost never see a team win consecutive games by the exact same score; the last time that happened was decades ago.
The Saints are competitive almost every week. Their matchup against the Seahawks was really the only exception, and even there, it was mostly turnovers and special teams mistakes that made the score look worse than it was from a success-rate standpoint.
The Saints are on my shortlist of favorite bets this week. Give me New Orleans +5.
Pick: Saints +5 (-115)
Spread
My Bears vs Saints betting prediction is on New Orleans to cover the spread at +5.
Moneyline
While I am taking the points with the Saints in this spot, I'm not interested in the moneyline market.
Over/Under
I'm not betting either side of the total in this matchup.
