The Los Angeles Rams (5-2) host the New Orleans Saints (1-7) today in Week 9 on Sunday, Nov. 2. Kickoff is set for in 4:05 p.m. ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. The game will broadcast on FOX.
The Rams are favored by -14 on the spread over the Saints (Rams -14; -115) with an over/under of 44.5 (-105o / -115u). The Rams are -1200 moneyline favorites while the Saints are +700 underdogs.
Let's get into my Week 9 preview and Saints vs Rams prediction for today's game.
Saints vs Rams Predictions, Picks
- Saints vs Rams pick: Under 44.5; bet to Under 44
My Saints vs Rams best bet is the game total under 44. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Saints vs Rams Odds
| Saints Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -105 | 44.5 -105o / -115u | +700 |
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -115 | 44.5 -105o / -115u | -1200 |
Saints vs Rams Week 9 Preview, Prediction
Saints Betting Insights
Tyler Shough will make his first NFL start today against a Rams defense that ranks second in defensive DVOA and is allowing the fourth-fewest yards per play.
Dating back to college, Shough has struggled with pressure. He completed 42% of his throws without a clean pocket during his final season at Louisville, which was the second-worst mark among quarterbacks drafted this past April.
Last week, in relief of Spencer Rattler, Shough finished 1-of-7 for six yards when under pressure. He was also sacked twice.
Given how much the Saints defense has been on the field while trailing, their run unit has held up quite well. New Orleans ranks 13th in rush defense DVOA and has held opposing running backs to 4.1 yards per carry.
Even in a 23-3 loss to Tampa Bay, the Saints held Baker Mayfield and company to just 3.8 yards per play, 5.2 yards per pass attempt and a 23% conversion rate on third down.
The Saints actually bested the Bucs in yards per play, and did the same in Week 6 against the Patriots in a close loss. In Week 5, in their lone victory (over the Giants), New Orleans averaged 5.4 yards per play to the Giants’ 4.8. The week prior, the Saints trailed 21-16 at Buffalo entering the fourth quarter.
This is a long way of saying it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Saints find a way to hang around — and the trends back that up. I'll avoid picking a side here.
Rams Betting Insights
Los Angeles' defense does most of its pass-rush work with just four rushers and rarely sends extra blitzers, yet it ranks fourth in pressure rate at 42%.
This allows the unit to sit back in zone coverage, which it's done at an 82% clip this season. It's difficult to envision Shough consistently beating the Rams' Cover 3, and it's fair to expect him to check the ball down often, as he has done in his limited preseason and regular-season action.
This may sound like I'm setting up to back the Rams in a blowout, but it’s worth noting Sean McVay's teams have not fared well coming off a bye week.
McVay is 0-4 against the spread since 2021 after a bye, and adding to the challenge, the Rams find themselves as two-touchdown favorites in this spot.
Favorites of 13 points or more have covered at just a 30.7% rate since 2017 when coming off a bye week.
Saints vs Rams Prediction, Over/Under Betting Analysis
The total is currently hovering around 44 points, and that's where I'll be attacking this game.
I already mentioned the limited capabilities of Tyler Shough, but it’s the Rams' style of play that leads me to the under. Los Angeles drops back to pass at just a 50% rate when leading, ranking 23rd in that specific scenario. When the Rams' lead is seven or more points, they fall to a 42% dropback rate, ranking 30th.
The Saints do not have an explosive element to their offense, with just 13 passing plays of 20 or more yards — the fewest in the league. With Shough under center, I believe we'll see even fewer shots down field, as he'll opt instead for short, high-percentage passes. This will keep the clock moving and ensure any meaningful Saints possessions are methodical.
I expect the Rams to win this game by a comfortable margin, likely by double digits. However, the Saints defense is built to defend the run, and a backdoor cover could be in play if the Rams go run-heavy in the second half with a lead.
I'd rather bank on Shough struggling in his first start.
Make sure you line shop as 44 is a key number — I’d even lay -115 to play 44 instead of 43.5.
Pick: Under 44.5; bet to Under 44
Spread
I'm avoiding the spread in this game.
Moneyline
I have no play on either moneyline.
Saints vs Rams Over/Under Prediction
My bet for this game is the game total under 44.5 (bet to under 44).
Saints vs Rams Betting Trends
Saints vs Rams Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. |
| Date: | Sunday, Nov. 2 |
| Time: | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | FOX |
